2025-01-15 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax xetra - Neutral and waiting for bears. New ath 20629 and market stayed above 20600, which is very bullish. Bears would need a miracle to reverse this over the next 1-2 days. We are once again at multiple upper bullish trend lines that should be resistance but market could just continue higher. I don’t have any interest in buying this but would need very strong signals to short this right now. I still think the bull wedge is the pattern to trade here and I wait for bears to come around.
comment: What are the odds of 20629 being the high and we go down from here? Low at best. Since the overall markets have been choppy as hell, it’s not entirely out of the question that this could reverse strongly but I highly doubt it.
current market cycle: bull wedge
key levels: 20100 - 20700
bull case: Bulls got a new ath and now what? I have two trend lines that have room to be hit and one would even get us to 21000. Bulls want the obvious follow through and preferably stay above the 15m or 60m 20ema and just continue higher. Buying above 20600 is hard though. Stop would have to be at least 20420 and betting on this getting to 20800 is a stretch but so was making a new ath again. I got two measured move targets 20800 and 21000.
Invalidation is below 20420.
bear case: Bears pretty much did nothing since EU open and we can’t expect them to come around all of a sudden tomorrow. Best bears can hope for here is to stop the advance and go sideways until we get a new impulse. Trading consecutive bear bars below the 15m 20ema is their first target for tomorrow and if a miracle happens, retesting 20420 would be the next target.
Invalidation is above 20650.
short term: Neutral. Bullish if momentum continues and we stay above 15m or 60m 20ema. Bears can only get me below 20420 again.
medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025.
current swing trade: None - cut my losses on last position. Need to see bigger bear bars first before thinking about it again.
trade of the day: Could have bought anywhere and made money. Most happened due to news, so that’s always tough and I never gamble on it.
tl;dr
dax xetra - Neutral and waiting for bears. New ath 20629 and market stayed above 20600, which is very bullish. Bears would need a miracle to reverse this over the next 1-2 days. We are once again at multiple upper bullish trend lines that should be resistance but market could just continue higher. I don’t have any interest in buying this but would need very strong signals to short this right now. I still think the bull wedge is the pattern to trade here and I wait for bears to come around.
comment: What are the odds of 20629 being the high and we go down from here? Low at best. Since the overall markets have been choppy as hell, it’s not entirely out of the question that this could reverse strongly but I highly doubt it.
current market cycle: bull wedge
key levels: 20100 - 20700
bull case: Bulls got a new ath and now what? I have two trend lines that have room to be hit and one would even get us to 21000. Bulls want the obvious follow through and preferably stay above the 15m or 60m 20ema and just continue higher. Buying above 20600 is hard though. Stop would have to be at least 20420 and betting on this getting to 20800 is a stretch but so was making a new ath again. I got two measured move targets 20800 and 21000.
Invalidation is below 20420.
bear case: Bears pretty much did nothing since EU open and we can’t expect them to come around all of a sudden tomorrow. Best bears can hope for here is to stop the advance and go sideways until we get a new impulse. Trading consecutive bear bars below the 15m 20ema is their first target for tomorrow and if a miracle happens, retesting 20420 would be the next target.
Invalidation is above 20650.
short term: Neutral. Bullish if momentum continues and we stay above 15m or 60m 20ema. Bears can only get me below 20420 again.
medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025.
current swing trade: None - cut my losses on last position. Need to see bigger bear bars first before thinking about it again.
trade of the day: Could have bought anywhere and made money. Most happened due to news, so that’s always tough and I never gamble on it.
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