DB: Contrarian long opportunity

2016年10月2日

I'm pretty sure 97% of people were short DB lately, and pessimistic about its outlook.
I was on that bandwagon, and shorting every rally for some time, but the latest developments made me change my mind on it. I think we have a great opportunity to long the stock here, if not already in that is.
I'm in with a 0.25% risk position, and will add gradually to it, until I reach 1% exposure.
We have to monitor the activity here, but it's possible this was a terminal wedge or ending diagonal pattern, in Elliott Wave parlance.

We can add to longs on a break of Friday's close, to the upside, risking a drop under the lowest low, and add more once we break above the earnings resistance above, at around 13.72, using the same stop loss.
We can also buy dips under 12.38 but I think it's unlikely to happen here. We need to reach 14.89 within 3 days to confirm the bullish momentum in the short term.

Good luck,

Ivan Labrie.

2016年10月3日

注释

I added near today's low.

2016年10月3日

注释

Looks good. Looking to buy gradually until I have a full position. Adding more tomorrow.

2016年10月4日

注释

Ok, I have a full position now, I like the progress, and would like to see a rally above the earnings resistance at 13.72 quickly.

2016年10月5日

注释

Good progress, let's see if it can cross the earnings resistance soon.

2016年10月6日

交易手动结束

To be safe, 'bank' it here. (for now at least)

2016年10月6日

注释

If we break above earnings resistance tomorrow I'll reenter longs.

2016年10月10日

交易开始

This is a solid close for DB, I'm getting back into the long trade tomorrow at the open. Risking a drop to 11.95
s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/g/gmvjE3KL.png

2016年10月11日

交易开始

DB didn't hold support here, we can flip short:



I'm short Dax as well.

2016年12月10日

注释

It can still hit 20.70 if it holds here and turns up again, breaking the recent high.
If not, the rally ended possibly, moving under today's low.