My previous posts on this subject were much longer, but I'll keep this short and sweet. You can check out my other posts (linked below) for more in-depth analysis and my overall perspective.
I actually DID NOT want to see the stock market continue up here. It's just further confirmation that we're still following this fractal from 1929. I drew the yellow speculative line a while ago, showing that if we continue up from here, we can indeed reach as high as 40-50,000, even by Fall 2020, when we could also hit the long term channel resistance (red). It's interesting that this may easily coincide with the U.S. Presidential election.
This, I believe, is a seller's rally. I expect the DJI to eventually AT LEAST test the long term trendline (purple) and the 200 Month Moving Average (light blue). A catastrophic financial collapse could result in the loss of the long term trendline and a decline just as severe as the Great Depression. The technical setup is there for this to happen, but the question is: What are the underlying similarities and the warning signs that have led to such similar market behavior? Feel free to discuss.
Here's a closer view and comparison. You can see certain features marked for structural comparison:
Anyway, this is not financial advice. As always, my posts are speculative and based purely upon my own opinions and observations.
-Victor Cobra
I actually DID NOT want to see the stock market continue up here. It's just further confirmation that we're still following this fractal from 1929. I drew the yellow speculative line a while ago, showing that if we continue up from here, we can indeed reach as high as 40-50,000, even by Fall 2020, when we could also hit the long term channel resistance (red). It's interesting that this may easily coincide with the U.S. Presidential election.
This, I believe, is a seller's rally. I expect the DJI to eventually AT LEAST test the long term trendline (purple) and the 200 Month Moving Average (light blue). A catastrophic financial collapse could result in the loss of the long term trendline and a decline just as severe as the Great Depression. The technical setup is there for this to happen, but the question is: What are the underlying similarities and the warning signs that have led to such similar market behavior? Feel free to discuss.
Here's a closer view and comparison. You can see certain features marked for structural comparison:
Anyway, this is not financial advice. As always, my posts are speculative and based purely upon my own opinions and observations.
-Victor Cobra
评论:
Looks like we may just continue up here until the November election. Get ready for some volatility!
评论:
We do have a bearish divergence on the monthly oscillator, but it can be ignored for several months, since the stoch has only just reached the top. Things look very overheated but I do think we might see a big blow off soon.
