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US 30 Shooting Star above .786 Fibo: Graveyard Doji or Bull Run?

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Chart says all. Let's get confirmation with a nice juicy red Bear Engulfing Doji. Sand P pivoted EXACTLY at 0.786 on 2812 today- fantastic!

Pos: Shorted QQQ, Long TECS. Not investment advice, trade at your own risk, but it's where I placed my bets.

Gaps tend to get filled, if gap up fills by gap down, we get island reversal with a graveyard... We at the end of an extended 5th EW. GLTA!

交易开始

Looks like a runaway gap forming in futures for the open, leaving the island reversal. Highly confident we saw the high in rally on Monday 25 Feb with a graveyard Doji.

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Closed shorts 2/28 prior to the tariff deadline, looks like a pump on optimism back up the slope of hope. Looks like the right shoulder of H&S; short the rally above Fibo #s!

注释

Looks like a double top formation, NB: Bullish index now 42%, a level which marked pivot reversals in October, Nov & Dec: marketwatch.com/story/why-bullish-investors-could-be-the-death-of-this-stock-market-run-2019-03-01

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Re-entered shorts on the retrace of today's rally in the QQQ Apr 174 puts, small 5% position wait and see what the Great Donald does with Mighty Ji. GLTA!

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Added and opened SDOW + TECS!

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Added 5% pos SPY Apr 280 put GLTA!

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Closed shorts, expecting rebound to test TL look for short re-entry on rejection from the channel lower TL at tip of bear flag around 26k/281 Spy. Gonna get a correction 5-8%; might put in a double bottom before next run-up, another zig-zag likely, IMO. Last 9/11 corrections gave double bottoms, so odds favor it.

Did real good on SDOW, TECS and SPY/QQQ puts today. Not betting on longs just watching for re-entry. Typically bear flags will break lower channel TL, push back to TL and reject again. Cascade selling precipitated by stop-loss executions- the lower it goes, the lower it goes. Each series of stop orders filling drives prices down to next stops, often SL orders are entered just at or below round numbers.

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APR Spy 280P QQQ 174P TECS SDOW SPXS All-in!

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Closed puts for +40% holding the ETFs. Making a descending wedge in daily chart, suggests could reverse pivot off support to pop up; real chancy now...

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Closed half positions with nice net gains on the morning sell, trading at 20DMA likely to get a lift on short-term oversold condition, unless total breakdown. Chancy!

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Re-entered intraday on the retracement in SPY 277 + QQQ 174 Apr 05 puts.

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Closed option trades for another nice gain; expect a relief rally and possibly retest lower channel TL before rolling over in earnest. Look for re-entry on retracement. Indexes resting on the 2nd step down off peak. Look back to Nov 13-16 pattern, after 2nd step, 1-2 sessions of modest lift before hammer down. Of course, could just Runaway Gap down; then short in the open with both barrels!

注释

Thats a sizable gap; gaps tend to get filled. IDK if it's smart to chase this one yet!

注释

SPX 0.786 Fibo for past week selloff is 2801; if it breaks above 1.00 over 2012, will probably melt up on squeeze. 0.618 Fibo passed at 2781 already. Jan 2018 ATH was 2873 for left shoulder, 3 Oct 2944 topped it for head; a right shoulder is coming, we maybe saw it at 2817, maybe not yet. If it breaks up, then it could well melt up and squeeze shorts hard enough to reach new ATH in April/May. Resolution on China plus Fed inaction on rates at FOMC this month could spark push to new ATH. Do not get FOMO to enter shorts- R/R is still too high!

Dow is harder to gauge, as a selloff in one issue (BA today) skews it. Watchful waiting to get trend confirmation. Could still be an uptrend, until the end when it bends! If rejection from Fibo, then downtrend will be confirmed to re-enter shorts. Always short on the right side of the right shoulder- safest!

交易结束：到达止损

Closed this out probably stopped out at the top of reaction wave, but cannot take chance on further runup. If Fed holds rates steady Weds and China rolls over on trade after that Dow will go to 27k and probably get 30K in September. GLTA!

DaddySawbucks