Distribution on the stock market, next recession on the way?

2019年11月13日

Although it is very hard to distinguish the difference between re-accumulation and distribution without the volume indicator, I am leaning towards distibution.
When we look at the wyckoff accumulation and distribution charts, the DJI seems to look nearly identical to the Wyckoff distribution schematic #2 (source: school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method )

When looking at technical analysis we can also see the following:
- Strong bearish divergence on 1M timeframe

This also seems be in line with the following fundamentals:
- Recessions usually happen in cycles of 8-10 years, which means a recession is to be expected (Source IMF: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_recession )
- Record high in global debt
- Global economy slowing down
The estimated GDP growth in 2019 is estimated to be 2.6%, source: (worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects )
- FED/ECB keep printing money which seems like a bottomless pit.

Trading plan:

Aggressive approach: If the DJI trades back into the range, it is possible to short with a stop loss above the previous high
Safe approach: short on a breakdown or a breakdown retest of the range low