Impending stock market crash circa 1987?

已更新

I publicly called the October 2018 market top months before it happened and the subsequent low, as well as this move up. I have also not been shy in hiding my belief that a crash will target $15,000 at least. If we continue to follow this same market pattern from prior to 1987's Black Monday, then we should expect a rise toward $29,000, as I have mentioned previously, followed by a hard drop toward $15,000-$18,000 as the market crashes. From the $29,000-$30,000 level, the same ~40% seen in 1987 would have price dropping right into my target area. It is possible that we could see an even larger drop, however, as a result of the large rise in price since the 2009 market bottom.

That being said, price has to hit that upper level first. If not, and it drops instead, then we should expect a move toward ~$15,800 based on the broadening wedge that's been printing since January 2018. Furthermore, if price does head up to $29,000/$30,000 first, then if the pattern just rhymes with 1987, we should expect a low point to be found at the HVN around $12,500-$13,200, depending on when the market crashed, much like the 1987 crash wicked below the previous re-accumulation level. This would also be the likely target based on the height of the larger broadening wedge that would have printed.

注释

Price continues to follow the path outlined and TR PA structure counts as ABC waves. As such, it looks like price may be printing an ABCDE expanding wedge (megaphone pattern) with a potential target as high as the ~$29,500 level. If you don't believe that price will fall, please note the Monthly RSI bearish divergence that is printing. The expected drop is expected to possibly get as low as the $18,000-$20,000 level to complete wave E. This terminal shakeout of ~33% should give price enough boost to get it into the mid-$40,000s. At that point, the reality of a possible Supercycle completion should be taken seriously.