USD support - possible double bottom if it can hold
USD has been sold hard since early-March when the banking crisis came into the equation. But now that banks aren't looking so bad and rates in the US have been going up, USD has started to exhibit early tendencies of a possible bottom.
Last week was the first weekly bar that didn't sell-off since early-March, around when the banking crisis started to get priced-in, and of course with that came lower rates and lower USD as markets started to build expectation for the Fed to soften.
Key for whether or not USD holds this support is the Euro, which is 57.6% of the DXY quote. The ECB has been taking a very hawkish tilt to the matter and given that stronger currencies can help to buffer inflation for import-heavy economies like Europe, that makes sense. But, last week saw prices hold below the 1.1000 level for most of the week, even with all of that hawkish verbiage which was illustrated in the meeting minutes release.
The big item for USD next week is Core PCE, due on Friday. This is the Fed's 'preferred inflation gauge' and will lead into the FOMC meeting the week after. Notably the Fed is in blackout so there shouldn't be any FOMC comments hitting the wires.
For DXY - 102 is a big level for bulls to take out, this is the 50% mark of the 2021-2022 major move. Above that, 102.30 is the next point of resistance, after which we near re-test of a major zone from 103-103.82.
Last week was the first weekly bar that didn't sell-off since early-March, around when the banking crisis started to get priced-in, and of course with that came lower rates and lower USD as markets started to build expectation for the Fed to soften.
Key for whether or not USD holds this support is the Euro, which is 57.6% of the DXY quote. The ECB has been taking a very hawkish tilt to the matter and given that stronger currencies can help to buffer inflation for import-heavy economies like Europe, that makes sense. But, last week saw prices hold below the 1.1000 level for most of the week, even with all of that hawkish verbiage which was illustrated in the meeting minutes release.
The big item for USD next week is Core PCE, due on Friday. This is the Fed's 'preferred inflation gauge' and will lead into the FOMC meeting the week after. Notably the Fed is in blackout so there shouldn't be any FOMC comments hitting the wires.
For DXY - 102 is a big level for bulls to take out, this is the 50% mark of the 2021-2022 major move. Above that, 102.30 is the next point of resistance, after which we near re-test of a major zone from 103-103.82.
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