DXY Is Long-Term Still Bearish

2023年8月7日

One of the main reasons why USdollar – DXY may stay weak is DXY/ZN (DXY against 10Y US Notes) ratio chart. Now that 10Y US Notes is looking for a bigger recovery, DXY could easily see more weakness, as DXY/ZN ratio chart is still looking lower, but ideally once current bearish running triangle in (B) fully unfolds, which can be in final stages.

With bullish stocks and while bonds are trading at potential support, there's no real reason to be bullish on USDollar, so DXY is long-term still bearish. DXY/ZN ratio chart is now at the upper triangle line for potential final subwave E of a bearish triangle in (B). Bond market recovery, may slow down the USdollar again, which can push DXY/ZN ratio chart into wave (C), but confirmation is below lower triangle line.

However, of course, if USDollar will keep recovering, then DXY/ZN may face higher resistance for a flat correction within wave (B), but it’s still bearish on a higher degree time frame, so sooner or later DXY will back to bearish mode.