U.S. Dollar: Rejection of Descending Daily Trend-line (FA)
By Taylor Norboge on 13:02:42 (UTC) Fri, 4 Aug 2023 09:03:09 est
On Friday, the dollar index fell even lower, falling below 102.2 for the second consecutive trading session as reports indicated that the economy of the United States was slowing. In July, nonfarm payrolls increased by 187 thousand, which was less than the growth of 200 thousand that was anticipated by the market. Despite this, the jobless rate came in at 3.5% lower than projected, and wage growth slowed down less than anticipated. Despite this, it appears that the dollar will advance for a third consecutive week as a result of positive economic news from the United States and rising rates on government bonds. A recent fall in the United States' credit rating heightened fears about the budgetary future, which in turn drove a rush to the dollar as a safe-haven investment. On Friday, the value of the greenback declined in relation to most major currencies, with selling pressure being most intense in relation to the euro, the Australian dollar, and the New Zealand dollar.
As market participants continued to analyze the payrolls report on Friday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note in the United States slipped down to 4.16%. During the last month, the economy of the United States added 187 thousand jobs, which was less than what was predicted, and wage growth did not decline as anticipated; nonetheless, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 3.5 percent. The study contributed to mounting evidence that the labor market is beginning to soften. Traders continue to wager that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current fed funds rate when it meets the month after next, but there is still a nearly 28% probability that the 25bp target rate will be raised in November. In the meantime, the United States Department of the Treasury revealed on Wednesday that it intends to progressively raise the size of its auctions and that it would issue $103 billion worth of securities the next week, which is a little more than was anticipated. The day before, Fitch lowered its credit rating grade for the United States from AAA to AA+, citing the anticipated worsening of the country's fiscal situation over the next three years as well as the large and increasing weight of general government debt.
US stock futures maintained their pre-market gains to climb on Friday, cutting losses from the previous trading day as investors analyzed company earnings and a mixed employment data. Treasuries paused their selloff throughout the session, which helped investors. Contracts relating to the Dow increased by 50 points, while those relating to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq increased by 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively. The nonfarm payrolls report indicated that 187 thousand jobs were created to the US economy, which fell short of market forecasts of a 200 thousand rise. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly decreased to 3.5%, and hourly wages exceeded projections by growing at a pace of 4.4% annually. Tech shares led the pre-market gains with a 9% rise after smashing sales projections. This surge set the stage for additional earnings-driven increases for companies such as Booking, DraftKings, and Coinbase. On the other hand, Apple fell somewhat after reporting yet another quarter of decreased revenue. The impact of Fitch's reduction of the United States' credit rating was amplified by an increase in government debt issuance, which, when combined with high interest rates, caused all three main indexes to be on track for significant weekly losses.
The unemployment rate in the United States fell to 3.5 percent in July 2023, down from 3.6 percent in June. This result was lower than the market consensus of 3.6 percent, which was expected. The number of individuals without jobs fell by 116 thousand, reaching 5.841 million, while the number of people with jobs climbed by 268 thousand, reaching 161.262 million. The so-called U-6 unemployment rate, which also includes those who want to work but have given up seeking for work and those working part-time because they cannot find full-time employment, decreased to 6.7 percent in July, down from 6.9 percent in June. This statistic takes into account people who want to work but have given up hunting for job. The labor force participation rate remained the same, at 62.6 percent, maintaining its position as the highest it has been since March of 2020.
The labor market in the United States added 187 thousand jobs in July of 2023, which was lower than the market consensus of 200 thousand jobs and came on the heels of June's figure of 185 thousand jobs, which had been revised downward. The reading is also lower than the average monthly rise of 312K during the preceding 12 months, but it is still about twice as high as the 70K-100K that is required every month to keep up with growth in the number of people of working age. There were increases in employment in the following sectors: health care (63 thousand), namely in ambulatory health care services (35 thousand) and hospitals (16 thousand); social assistance (24 thousand); financial activities (19 thousand), specifically in real estate and renting and leasing (12 thousand); and wholesale commerce (18 thousand). There was a seventeen thousand person rise in employment in the leisure and hospitality industry, although job growth in the sector have showed little change in recent months, after average monthly increases of sixty seven thousand in the first quarter. Despite this, employment in the leisure and hospitality sector is 352 thousand jobs below where it was in February 2020. The numbers relating to payroll for the month of May were likewise revised downward. Because of these changes, the total number of people employed in May and June was 49 thousand lower than what had been stated earlier.
The average hourly wages for all employees on US private nonfarm payrolls increased by 14 cents, or 0.4%, to $33.74 in July 2023, which is the same rate as in the preceding month and slightly over market predictions of a 0.3% growth. In the previous month, the average hourly earnings increased to $33.72. The average hourly wages of production and nonsupervisory employees in the private sector grew to $28.96 in July, up 13 cents, or 0.5%, from the previous month's level. The average hourly wages have climbed by 4.4% over the last 12 months in July, which is the same growth as in June and is more than the gain that the market was expecting, which was 4.2%. information obtained from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics
On Friday, the dollar index fell even lower, falling below 102.2 for the second consecutive trading session as reports indicated that the economy of the United States was slowing. In July, nonfarm payrolls increased by 187 thousand, which was less than the growth of 200 thousand that was anticipated by the market. Despite this, the jobless rate came in at 3.5% lower than projected, and wage growth slowed down less than anticipated. Despite this, it appears that the dollar will advance for a third consecutive week as a result of positive economic news from the United States and rising rates on government bonds. A recent fall in the United States' credit rating heightened fears about the budgetary future, which in turn drove a rush to the dollar as a safe-haven investment. On Friday, the value of the greenback declined in relation to most major currencies, with selling pressure being most intense in relation to the euro, the Australian dollar, and the New Zealand dollar.
As market participants continued to analyze the payrolls report on Friday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note in the United States slipped down to 4.16%. During the last month, the economy of the United States added 187 thousand jobs, which was less than what was predicted, and wage growth did not decline as anticipated; nonetheless, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 3.5 percent. The study contributed to mounting evidence that the labor market is beginning to soften. Traders continue to wager that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current fed funds rate when it meets the month after next, but there is still a nearly 28% probability that the 25bp target rate will be raised in November. In the meantime, the United States Department of the Treasury revealed on Wednesday that it intends to progressively raise the size of its auctions and that it would issue $103 billion worth of securities the next week, which is a little more than was anticipated. The day before, Fitch lowered its credit rating grade for the United States from AAA to AA+, citing the anticipated worsening of the country's fiscal situation over the next three years as well as the large and increasing weight of general government debt.
US stock futures maintained their pre-market gains to climb on Friday, cutting losses from the previous trading day as investors analyzed company earnings and a mixed employment data. Treasuries paused their selloff throughout the session, which helped investors. Contracts relating to the Dow increased by 50 points, while those relating to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq increased by 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively. The nonfarm payrolls report indicated that 187 thousand jobs were created to the US economy, which fell short of market forecasts of a 200 thousand rise. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly decreased to 3.5%, and hourly wages exceeded projections by growing at a pace of 4.4% annually. Tech shares led the pre-market gains with a 9% rise after smashing sales projections. This surge set the stage for additional earnings-driven increases for companies such as Booking, DraftKings, and Coinbase. On the other hand, Apple fell somewhat after reporting yet another quarter of decreased revenue. The impact of Fitch's reduction of the United States' credit rating was amplified by an increase in government debt issuance, which, when combined with high interest rates, caused all three main indexes to be on track for significant weekly losses.
The unemployment rate in the United States fell to 3.5 percent in July 2023, down from 3.6 percent in June. This result was lower than the market consensus of 3.6 percent, which was expected. The number of individuals without jobs fell by 116 thousand, reaching 5.841 million, while the number of people with jobs climbed by 268 thousand, reaching 161.262 million. The so-called U-6 unemployment rate, which also includes those who want to work but have given up seeking for work and those working part-time because they cannot find full-time employment, decreased to 6.7 percent in July, down from 6.9 percent in June. This statistic takes into account people who want to work but have given up hunting for job. The labor force participation rate remained the same, at 62.6 percent, maintaining its position as the highest it has been since March of 2020.
The labor market in the United States added 187 thousand jobs in July of 2023, which was lower than the market consensus of 200 thousand jobs and came on the heels of June's figure of 185 thousand jobs, which had been revised downward. The reading is also lower than the average monthly rise of 312K during the preceding 12 months, but it is still about twice as high as the 70K-100K that is required every month to keep up with growth in the number of people of working age. There were increases in employment in the following sectors: health care (63 thousand), namely in ambulatory health care services (35 thousand) and hospitals (16 thousand); social assistance (24 thousand); financial activities (19 thousand), specifically in real estate and renting and leasing (12 thousand); and wholesale commerce (18 thousand). There was a seventeen thousand person rise in employment in the leisure and hospitality industry, although job growth in the sector have showed little change in recent months, after average monthly increases of sixty seven thousand in the first quarter. Despite this, employment in the leisure and hospitality sector is 352 thousand jobs below where it was in February 2020. The numbers relating to payroll for the month of May were likewise revised downward. Because of these changes, the total number of people employed in May and June was 49 thousand lower than what had been stated earlier.
The average hourly wages for all employees on US private nonfarm payrolls increased by 14 cents, or 0.4%, to $33.74 in July 2023, which is the same rate as in the preceding month and slightly over market predictions of a 0.3% growth. In the previous month, the average hourly earnings increased to $33.72. The average hourly wages of production and nonsupervisory employees in the private sector grew to $28.96 in July, up 13 cents, or 0.5%, from the previous month's level. The average hourly wages have climbed by 4.4% over the last 12 months in July, which is the same growth as in June and is more than the gain that the market was expecting, which was 4.2%. information obtained from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics
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