ES 03/07: bulls got no time to waste

2022年3月7日

Sunday night, bears finally made a sustained break of 4290~4300 support zone and the trending line support, so triangle is ruled out, we hit 4238.5 which is right in the support range for standard wave (2), and rallied 80+ pts so far, micro structure can be viewed as a 5 wave up, so that could be the wave 1 for push higher. So if we could get an pullback today in RTH session and hold overnight low, that could work as wave 2. However there are a few concerns for me as a bull. We will have CPI report Thurs morning, and Fed meeting Wed next week, both could prevent market from doing huge rally before that. My thought was always that we would rally into Fed meeting, but if we cannot start that rally now, we may instead decline into Fed meeting. Also the downtrend since last Thursday morning is not completely confirmed yet, but if bears can defend 4361.5 and making new low today/tomorrow, it will greatly shift the odds to the route that we will decline into Fed meeting. Therefore, bulls got no time to waste now, it must minimally break above 4361.5, and better get a 150+ point rally from low to 4390~4400 range to confirm the reversal, and the best time to do that is today. Any further delay would give bears lots of power, and open possible bearish count. I will review this after today's close.