9/25 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading Plan
Recap
Mid-market update. Last week, the ES put in the first relief pop of the new leg down. More downside is expected this week. Last week saw a powerful confluence of FOMC, a major multi-month triangle breakdown, and the most bearish two weeks of the year seasonally.
Market Gauge
🔴 Bearish
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed, China very weak
🌍 Europe: Down a lot
🌎 US Index Futures: Down
🛢 Crude Oil: Down slightly
💵 Dollar: Up a bit
🧐 Yields: Up sharply
🔮 Crypto: Down
World News
The downward price movement continues to be the catalyst that feeds on itself. Last week's selling was primarily due to the breakdown of the ES triangle pattern following the FOMC meeting. The triangle breakdown targeted 4418-24, then 4385, and we reached the 4385 target in one session.
Key Structures
The large, multi-month triangle remains the primary pattern, with resistance at 4542 and support at 4473-75. Key supports worth watching are 4385, 4366, and 4335.
Support Levels
Supports are: 4366 (major), 4353 (major), 4344, 4332-35 (major), 4316, 4307, 4296, 4288-90 (major), 4280, 4268, 4262 (major), 4253, 4232-38 (major), 4215, 4200-05 (major), 4192.
Resistance Levels
Resistances are: 4366 (major), 4370, 4380-83 (major), 4400, 4412, 4418-24 (major), 4439, 4448, 4465 (major), 4470 (major), 4485, 4496 (major), 4505-08 (major), 4516, 4522-25 (major), 4533, 4543 (major).
Trading Plan
Bears remain in control and any bull case at this point is for a relief bounce only. Bulls have nothing to be excited about until 4418-24 clears, or until we hit 4335 and explode off it with force.
Wrap Up
We remain in difficult conditions here and the plan is to be as reactive as possible and keep prediction to a minimum. The general lean is that the low is not in by any means, and there is a high chance that 4335 tests this week — 4338.25 already touched today.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
Mid-market update. Last week, the ES put in the first relief pop of the new leg down. More downside is expected this week. Last week saw a powerful confluence of FOMC, a major multi-month triangle breakdown, and the most bearish two weeks of the year seasonally.
Market Gauge
🔴 Bearish
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed, China very weak
🌍 Europe: Down a lot
🌎 US Index Futures: Down
🛢 Crude Oil: Down slightly
💵 Dollar: Up a bit
🧐 Yields: Up sharply
🔮 Crypto: Down
World News
The downward price movement continues to be the catalyst that feeds on itself. Last week's selling was primarily due to the breakdown of the ES triangle pattern following the FOMC meeting. The triangle breakdown targeted 4418-24, then 4385, and we reached the 4385 target in one session.
Key Structures
The large, multi-month triangle remains the primary pattern, with resistance at 4542 and support at 4473-75. Key supports worth watching are 4385, 4366, and 4335.
Support Levels
Supports are: 4366 (major), 4353 (major), 4344, 4332-35 (major), 4316, 4307, 4296, 4288-90 (major), 4280, 4268, 4262 (major), 4253, 4232-38 (major), 4215, 4200-05 (major), 4192.
Resistance Levels
Resistances are: 4366 (major), 4370, 4380-83 (major), 4400, 4412, 4418-24 (major), 4439, 4448, 4465 (major), 4470 (major), 4485, 4496 (major), 4505-08 (major), 4516, 4522-25 (major), 4533, 4543 (major).
Trading Plan
Bears remain in control and any bull case at this point is for a relief bounce only. Bulls have nothing to be excited about until 4418-24 clears, or until we hit 4335 and explode off it with force.
Wrap Up
We remain in difficult conditions here and the plan is to be as reactive as possible and keep prediction to a minimum. The general lean is that the low is not in by any means, and there is a high chance that 4335 tests this week — 4338.25 already touched today.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
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