2月第4周----标普500股指期货

2023年2月20日

交易区间突破后回踩跌破，日线顶背离，上涨趋势出现衰竭，预计将出现回调
4100附近关注高空机会，回调企稳后再考虑进多

注：
Micheal Hartnett 预计标普500指数将在3月8日跌至3800点，这较周四收盘价位有约7%的下跌幅度。

资金流方面，Hartnett在报告中援引EPFR Global的数据称，在截至2月15日的一周内，投资者继续回避美国股票，资金流出总额达22亿美元，与之形成对比的是，欧洲股市流入了15亿美元，新兴市场股票吸引了1亿美元资金。债券市场流入55亿美元，当前美国国债创下2004年以来最好的开局。美国银行的私人客户投入债券的资金创历史第三高。

Hartnett近年来多次精准判断美国股市的大势走势。上周他在报告中表示，越来越多的迹象显示，美国的通胀可能比投资者预期的更为顽固。当时他就预计，美国本周公布的通胀数据有可能成为美股由涨转跌的转折点，标普500指数已经逼近他给出的目标价4200点。现在来看，通胀数据和市场走势符合他的预判。

2023年2月20日

注释

上述资金流出单位有误，原文为billion

Several strategists agree with Hartnett’s more cautious outlook. Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson this week said US stocks are ripe for a selloff after prematurely pricing in a pause in Fed hikes. He expects equities to bottom in spring. And in a note on Friday, Barclays Plc strategists including Emmanuel Cau also said the equity rally is being kept in check by sticky inflation.

According to Cau, technical and sentiment indicators have normalized “and are less supportive now, but don’t give clear sell signals either.”

Meanwhile, Wells Fargo & Co. strategists led by Christopher Harvey said a 3% to 5% pullback in US stocks in the near term creates an opportunity for investors to buy the dip. Unlike Hartnett, they see a hard landing as unlikely given the economy remains resilient.

Investors continued to shun US equities in the week through Feb. 15, with outflows totaling $2.2 billion, Hartnett said in the note, citing EPFR Global data. On the flip side, Europe saw inflows of $1.5 billion, while emerging-market stocks attracted $100 million.

Bonds had inflows of $5.5 billion, with Treasuries seeing their best start to a year since 2004, Hartnett wrote. Meanwhile, BofA’s private clients poured the third-biggest amount on record into bonds.

2023年2月26日

订单已取消

如预期下跌，进空未到机会，回调未完，等待企稳