做空

SPX vs. NIKKEI225 SELL; Massive SHORT!!

已更新

SHORT this spread endlessly!!

Here is the Weekly

The "math" bears this out, readily! NIKKEI225 has a 13%-15% advantage - including FX - over the SPX. This is by far the best Equities/Risk spread out there if one must be long equities. (... which one ought Not to want to do under any circumstance, at these levels! :-)

Here is the FX component - USDJPY

注释

It naturally follows that the DJI (Dow) / Nikkei225 is a DEVASTATING SHORT!!...

The best of them all!

注释

Here is an other version...

.. a difference without distinction.

注释

Now, if think the above chart - Dow/Nikkei225 - is ridiculous, think again!!
We expect a full -70% decline in the DJIA within the end of this Market Cycle, in real terms(!!),based on any accurate, forward looking measure, such as the MAPE, or the Market Cap / GVA / MAPE, or any other, 90%+ accurate forecasting measures known.
Learn it, live it, love it!!

注释

In short, we fully expect US Market Capitalization to decline by 2/3 by the end of this investment cycle! (An abject, generational and "complete devastation", one might observe.)
Ironically, that would be still nothing more than a garden-variety reversion to historical norms.

注释

Her is the Daily chart for the DJIA / Nikkei225 ...

... to answer the question: Is this ready to go?...
Yes, it is!

注释

"Extreme valuations mean extreme sensitivity

Prior to the bubble period of recent decades, the average dividend yield of the S&P 500 was close to 4%. During much of the post-war period, the combination of robust labor force growth, high productivity, and moderate inflation generated growth of more than 6% annually in nominal fundamentals. Add a 4% dividend yield to 6% nominal growth, and there’s the average 10% nominal return that investors associate with historical returns for the S&P 500, and imagine is still a relevant figure despite current valuation extremes.

In a world where the S&P 500 yields 4%, pushing long-term expected returns up by 0.5% requires a loss of (.04/.045-1=) just -11% in stock prices. But see, in today’s world where the S&P 500 yields 1.6%, pushing long-term expected returns up by that same 0.5% requires a loss of (.016/.021-1=) about -24%.

So it’s not enough to assume that extreme valuations will be sustained over the long-term. One also has to assume that there will be virtually no change at all in expected returns. That’s because even slight increases in expected returns from these valuations are likely to drive steep drawdowns in stock prices." - Hussman Funds

... while reminding ourselves that even with two Financial Bubbles, so far, S&P net returns lagged those of US T-Bills, including the 2000 and 2009 market tops!!

注释

The "Everything Crises". A Pandemic Collapse followed by...

注释

Regarding Wall Street's "check mark shaped economic recovery" ....

Copper SHORT; Gold / Copper and Wall Street's mass delusion

... and similar tall tales.

注释

Wanna see the (imminent) future fate of Wall Street's "check mark shaped economic recovery"??...

[ Dr. ] Copper Weekly; "The base metal of economic expansions".
Has anyone ever seen an RSI Divergence ( the size of Montana) like this one, not to mention that perfect, massive H & S on the same RSI? - Text book.

注释

The 4 hr. Gold / Copper Ratio