6/22: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading Plan
Recap
Yesterday was a high complexity session with hours of total chop around the key 4413 level, which acted as a magnet. ES has now put in 3 red days in a row for the first time since May 4th, and we are yet to see if the Thursday rally will bail out ES.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down but China closed for holiday
🌍 Europe: Down a lot
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Up
World Headline
Bank of England surprises markets with 50bps rate hike to counter persistent inflation.
Turkey raises their rate by 650bps to 15% from 8.5% reversing their unorthodox policy to battle runaway inflation.
Indian Prime Minister Modi arrives for his first U.S.state visit and will meet top CEOs at a White House state dinner.
Key Structures
Some core big picture structures and levels I am watching include 4432, the most recent breakout level from Thursday June 15th; 4413-4404, a battleground for three days now; 4372, the break-out level from Monday June 12th; and the main breakout zone from June 1st/2nd at 4282-77.
Support Levels
4413 (major), 4404, 4393 (major), 4382, 4372 (major), 4358, 4340-45 (major), 4331, 4317, 4310, 4302, 4282-77 (major), 4265-70 (major)
Resistance Levels
4421, 4432 (major), 4440-44 (major), 4453, 4465-68 (major), 4485 (major), 4502, 4515 (major), 4525, 4538-40 (major), 4558 (major), 4575 (major), 4585, 4600-05 (major), 4627 (major)
Trading Plan
The short-term bull case is extremely vulnerable and it would not shock me if the Thurs/Friday rally streak fails this week or is much more muted. The bear case today begins on the loss of yesterday's low. My very loose lean is as long as this pattern is in tact (with yesterday’s low holding) ES can try another push to 4440ish, then dip. Yesterday’s low fails, we start the move down. I’ll react to whatever price picks.
Wrap Up
Bulls put in a bullish failed breakdown pattern yesterday by losing yesterday's low and reclaiming. It ran to 4430 and failed, which is not good. This is the shot for bulls and failure of a bullish pattern is bearish.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Yesterday was a high complexity session with hours of total chop around the key 4413 level, which acted as a magnet. ES has now put in 3 red days in a row for the first time since May 4th, and we are yet to see if the Thursday rally will bail out ES.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down but China closed for holiday
🌍 Europe: Down a lot
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Up
World Headline
Bank of England surprises markets with 50bps rate hike to counter persistent inflation.
Turkey raises their rate by 650bps to 15% from 8.5% reversing their unorthodox policy to battle runaway inflation.
Indian Prime Minister Modi arrives for his first U.S.state visit and will meet top CEOs at a White House state dinner.
Key Structures
Some core big picture structures and levels I am watching include 4432, the most recent breakout level from Thursday June 15th; 4413-4404, a battleground for three days now; 4372, the break-out level from Monday June 12th; and the main breakout zone from June 1st/2nd at 4282-77.
Support Levels
4413 (major), 4404, 4393 (major), 4382, 4372 (major), 4358, 4340-45 (major), 4331, 4317, 4310, 4302, 4282-77 (major), 4265-70 (major)
Resistance Levels
4421, 4432 (major), 4440-44 (major), 4453, 4465-68 (major), 4485 (major), 4502, 4515 (major), 4525, 4538-40 (major), 4558 (major), 4575 (major), 4585, 4600-05 (major), 4627 (major)
Trading Plan
The short-term bull case is extremely vulnerable and it would not shock me if the Thurs/Friday rally streak fails this week or is much more muted. The bear case today begins on the loss of yesterday's low. My very loose lean is as long as this pattern is in tact (with yesterday’s low holding) ES can try another push to 4440ish, then dip. Yesterday’s low fails, we start the move down. I’ll react to whatever price picks.
Wrap Up
Bulls put in a bullish failed breakdown pattern yesterday by losing yesterday's low and reclaiming. It ran to 4430 and failed, which is not good. This is the shot for bulls and failure of a bullish pattern is bearish.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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