Dubs

200 DMAs to End Bear Market Rally

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CME_MINI:ES1!   标普500 E-mini期货
This has been the biggest bear market rally in history, breaching the 0.618 retracement levels of most markets, leading many to call for a v-shaped recovery. This won't be the case - the bounce has been so great because this has been the fastest sell-off in history, leaving the 200 DMAs higher than in the past. Now that the 200 DMAs been breached (they often overshoot), we should begin the next leg down, which will accelerate as we're hit with a tsunami of bankruptcies caused by an insanely high unemployment rate and reduced consumer spending. Even as the economy reopens, the unemployment rate will remain elevated, and a huge deleveraging cycle will begin. Fed liquidity won't reach the markets until early 2021, so I don't expect a reversal until then.
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