Weekend Update: Today was a Big Nothing Burger
Today played out pretty much as forecasted Thursday evening in my Thought Experiment post.
However, in my weekend update I want to discuss what happens next. If you have followed my analysis you know I am tracking a 3-way move into the 4300-4600 area to complete sometime in the first half of 2023. We are about 30% complete in the fulfillment of that pattern. This portion of the move is just the "a" wave, with b and c to come to complete a larger "b" wave. From that "b" wave, I am expecting a brutal decline that would exceed 1,000 points (see below)
SHORT TERM: I am expecting price to come back into the 4020-4040 area...then over the course of the next week or so, make a direct challenge to the 4158-4175 area. If my analysis plays out as forecasted I plan to establish a large short ES position, but have decided to do so via short OOM ES call options. I am hoping to generate $40-50k in premium so the position size will be 20-25 contracts. I am wanting to juice my 2022 P&L.
2023 will feel largely bullish until the second half and more specifically end of 3rd quarter till year end. This is where the decline will become brutal (see above). Please do not ask me to expand on what the event will be...I am an analyst...not a palm reader. Please do not confuse the two. I don't know. If your concern is I am pulling these forecasts out of my backside...I would encourage you to search the 4 Thought Experiments I have conducted with my followers. ANyone can get 1 right, maybe 2...So far I'm 4 for 4. So, I can speculate much like you would do...suffice to say...what we experience next year will pale in comparison to what awaits us down the road in 2025-26. But I do not want to get too ahead of myself. I want to keep my focus on closing out my December and my 2022 on a high energy note. I have time to devise a 2023 strategy.
The last thing I want to mention is at this juncture I suspect have earned the right to say to my followers...Take a look at the above daily chart....(Thats a 2-Year Thought Experiment far in advance)....PLEASE GET PREPARED FOR WHAT IS TO COME. I promise you it will be uncomfortable.
I'm giving you a 2 year head start on the rest of the world.
Best to all,
Chris
However, in my weekend update I want to discuss what happens next. If you have followed my analysis you know I am tracking a 3-way move into the 4300-4600 area to complete sometime in the first half of 2023. We are about 30% complete in the fulfillment of that pattern. This portion of the move is just the "a" wave, with b and c to come to complete a larger "b" wave. From that "b" wave, I am expecting a brutal decline that would exceed 1,000 points (see below)
SHORT TERM: I am expecting price to come back into the 4020-4040 area...then over the course of the next week or so, make a direct challenge to the 4158-4175 area. If my analysis plays out as forecasted I plan to establish a large short ES position, but have decided to do so via short OOM ES call options. I am hoping to generate $40-50k in premium so the position size will be 20-25 contracts. I am wanting to juice my 2022 P&L.
2023 will feel largely bullish until the second half and more specifically end of 3rd quarter till year end. This is where the decline will become brutal (see above). Please do not ask me to expand on what the event will be...I am an analyst...not a palm reader. Please do not confuse the two. I don't know. If your concern is I am pulling these forecasts out of my backside...I would encourage you to search the 4 Thought Experiments I have conducted with my followers. ANyone can get 1 right, maybe 2...So far I'm 4 for 4. So, I can speculate much like you would do...suffice to say...what we experience next year will pale in comparison to what awaits us down the road in 2025-26. But I do not want to get too ahead of myself. I want to keep my focus on closing out my December and my 2022 on a high energy note. I have time to devise a 2023 strategy.
The last thing I want to mention is at this juncture I suspect have earned the right to say to my followers...Take a look at the above daily chart....(Thats a 2-Year Thought Experiment far in advance)....PLEASE GET PREPARED FOR WHAT IS TO COME. I promise you it will be uncomfortable.
I'm giving you a 2 year head start on the rest of the world.
Best to all,
Chris
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