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LARP Capital: ETH won the battle but it will lose the war!

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On our original bearish ETH/BTC call we were wrong in that we were certainly early, but will ultimately be proven right. With that said, our analysis explaining the clear disagreement in the direction of the wider cryptocurrency markets between the 'ETH faction' and 'BTC faction' which started with Bitcoin topping (more or less) back in the spring (see 'The big short') was correct. After such a spectacular call (who else was bearish at this time?) many were bewildered by our unwillingness to change back to a bullish outlook, which we have maintained, and is very much related to the need for ETH capitulate and destroy much of the malinvestment in the space (whether by retail trading jpegs and shiba inus or by foolish billionaires and their 'preference' for proof of stake (or really their preference for control over the wider space).

The next major battle was won by ETH, which, was able to extend it's B wave higher which in our opinion has only delayed the ultimate reckoning which is coming to the wider markets. If ETH had conceded this battle the wider markets would have continued their healthy correction and ended the pain earlier allowing us to break out into a historic bull market. Instead, and consistent with our most recent Bitcoin analysis (see Still 'B'earish Dre) we are now in for a prolonged bear market. Just like Bitcoin, ETH is still in a larger B wave (a bit different albeit in that it's B of a zig zag).

As we have maintained since our more recent 'Silent Juan' analysis (published as a Trip on The Truth Social Network) which correctly called the top on eth/btc, we are in an extended 5th wave terminal C wave of a larger B wave, of a Zig Zag. The above chart is a slight update our the progress labels which a bit more accurately illustrates the 5th wave terminal quick and dirty analysis. The lower degree waves have been slightly adjusted in that it makes more sense to have an expanding triangle for wave 4 down, and non standard correction ending in a contracting triangle for wave 5 (the contracting triangle illustrates the delayed nature of what is about to unfold).

Gluck
May your larps be fruitful : )

*as always not investment advice

注释

While our big picture stance on the eth/btc ratio remains the same, more specifically, our 'juan titer' prediction is necessarily revised due to what will likely compete for the dumbest chess move of all time (See all the videos and charts related to 'Still Bearish Dre' Bitcoin analysis for current #1). The commonality here is big market players choosing to buy into the market to delay what nature has in store for them, only to make things even worse.

The eth bulls have now effectively created a classic extended third wave impulse for wave C of larger wave B of a zig zag. Feel free to watch the many hours of content "how ETH lost the war" to get an idea of why this is our count. Nothing about this count changes but rather a simple update of our progress labels helps evolve things to better represent the bull trap exit pump.

Was the prediction 'wrong'? Obviously, the price did not reach the level we predicted within the time frame specified, yet we stand by our analysis and would not do it differently if we could go back in time (ask Juan Titer he will confirm). In other words, pretty much the only way in which our analysis would be wrong would be for the mETH whales to completely shoot themselves in the foot, sacrificing long term price appreciation in order for short term gains.

Surely, we'll be covering all this and more in future videos. Keep in mind, the eth/btc ratio can crash in both up markets and down. It's no secret that we have been expecting a big pump in the bitcoin market (see The Big Long). So, most likely the ratio will at least *begin to drop at some point a midst the bitcoin pump. Look for market participants to sell their eth which gets 'stuck in glue' so to speak for an on the rise bitcoin, or an even more attractive LTC and/or XMR (see LARP Capital Investment Thesis: a market preference for POW).

Anyway, that's all for now, stay tuned : )