To me, ETH has essentially 2 obvious options in how it will play out as it approaches the ETH 2.0 merge date. Up, or down then up.
ETH is currently in a rising wedge after a bear market drawdown. Typically when this wedge is broken to the downside, it is volatile and and quickly played out. ETH is positioned at the bottom of the wedge, and I believe it has opportunity for downside. In the even of a quick move down, I would tend towards a buy side, given the merge is approaching in 28 days, as of this idea. This is plenty of time for ETH to pull back and have recovery for the merge date, in which people will be spot buying ETH for a potential fork. A play to consider here would be to buy spot ETH, receive POW fork coins, and short on perps. Supply shock driven by ETH won't have an immediate pullback.
Further to this, BTC is still trading above the low trendline in a similar rising wedge, so there is definitely potential for it to move down, which would likely break the ETH trend and see some further downside. Believe this is the most likely scenario.
Other option is trend continuation and we wait for next move.
ETH is currently in a rising wedge after a bear market drawdown. Typically when this wedge is broken to the downside, it is volatile and and quickly played out. ETH is positioned at the bottom of the wedge, and I believe it has opportunity for downside. In the even of a quick move down, I would tend towards a buy side, given the merge is approaching in 28 days, as of this idea. This is plenty of time for ETH to pull back and have recovery for the merge date, in which people will be spot buying ETH for a potential fork. A play to consider here would be to buy spot ETH, receive POW fork coins, and short on perps. Supply shock driven by ETH won't have an immediate pullback.
Further to this, BTC is still trading above the low trendline in a similar rising wedge, so there is definitely potential for it to move down, which would likely break the ETH trend and see some further downside. Believe this is the most likely scenario.
Other option is trend continuation and we wait for next move.
评论:
Played short position to target + scalp long. ETH now bear flagged and broken downward and invalidated bottom thesis. Could head back down to ~1500 and range