ETH Descending Channel - Looking to long if it follows the plan
Long time lurker, first post, be nice! Constructive critiques welcomed. Been active in crypto space since 2017! Made plenty of mistakes, however my New Years resolution is to do more trade journaling, so here I am. First published idea, yahoo!
Macro picture defiantly looks ugly for first half of 2022. Got spanked being blinded by the laser eyes and have been sidelined while I try to find new entry points. I am not a good trader, so I am looking for long term buy and hold strategy and will take some cream off the top when market looks over bought.
This idea is to help myself stick to the plan. I often have the right plan and insights. The problem is execution. Hopefully this gives me the incentive and encouragement to follow through.
Idea background:
ETH has risen in MCAP from $11 Billion in March 2020 to 27B in July 2020 then of to the races to about 250B in April 2021. We topped out around 570B in November 2021. My thesis is that retail drove the demand to about 100B and Institutional money brought us the rest of the way. Why is this important? Cause institutional money doesn't lose money. So max low I see is that $100-120B area which translates to a $900-$1200 USD ETH price. If in this area or below then ETH probably not going to be #2 coin at that point and is lost cause.
Macro picture looks shaky and if the US Fed starts following through on its plan of reducing balance sheet of assets and actually starts hiking rates beyond what is advertised then we really are going down to that $1200 level. I believe current state of crypto markets is that the Fed will not follow through completely of accelerated balance sheet reductions and will stay at maximum 3 rate hikes this year. This illustration is what I think will happen. If the price stays in the channel I see the momentum starting to reverse in late February to March. If breaking above the channel the market is seeing new retail demand and we are back in bull season as the LT holders start off loading to ST holders. If break below the macro picture is looking dire for the rest of the year.
Help me get better at this by leaving some comments on what might help illustrate the above thesis.
I do have a finance background but am no TA expert. While I think TA is overrated in long time frames, it is hard to deny how much crypto moves at specific support and resistance levels of historical significance.
Happy new year!! I hope 2022 brings you all health, wealth, and happiness.
Edit 1: My buy area should be at 2750 to around 2000. I thing we touch 2400 at some point. I am back out at 1800 and below 1400 crypto is hibernating and it will be a long winter.
Macro picture defiantly looks ugly for first half of 2022. Got spanked being blinded by the laser eyes and have been sidelined while I try to find new entry points. I am not a good trader, so I am looking for long term buy and hold strategy and will take some cream off the top when market looks over bought.
This idea is to help myself stick to the plan. I often have the right plan and insights. The problem is execution. Hopefully this gives me the incentive and encouragement to follow through.
Idea background:
ETH has risen in MCAP from $11 Billion in March 2020 to 27B in July 2020 then of to the races to about 250B in April 2021. We topped out around 570B in November 2021. My thesis is that retail drove the demand to about 100B and Institutional money brought us the rest of the way. Why is this important? Cause institutional money doesn't lose money. So max low I see is that $100-120B area which translates to a $900-$1200 USD ETH price. If in this area or below then ETH probably not going to be #2 coin at that point and is lost cause.
Macro picture looks shaky and if the US Fed starts following through on its plan of reducing balance sheet of assets and actually starts hiking rates beyond what is advertised then we really are going down to that $1200 level. I believe current state of crypto markets is that the Fed will not follow through completely of accelerated balance sheet reductions and will stay at maximum 3 rate hikes this year. This illustration is what I think will happen. If the price stays in the channel I see the momentum starting to reverse in late February to March. If breaking above the channel the market is seeing new retail demand and we are back in bull season as the LT holders start off loading to ST holders. If break below the macro picture is looking dire for the rest of the year.
Help me get better at this by leaving some comments on what might help illustrate the above thesis.
I do have a finance background but am no TA expert. While I think TA is overrated in long time frames, it is hard to deny how much crypto moves at specific support and resistance levels of historical significance.
Happy new year!! I hope 2022 brings you all health, wealth, and happiness.
Edit 1: My buy area should be at 2750 to around 2000. I thing we touch 2400 at some point. I am back out at 1800 and below 1400 crypto is hibernating and it will be a long winter.
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