ETH and crypto, the bullish thesis

2022年7月30日

The question for many of us is, is it time to go long? In the past week, I observed the market tilt switching from being strongly bearish to being strongly bullish (ibb.co/hRp0FPC - gray line off of the middle axis). There is now a high probability of us seeing PA similar to that of March/April, as I've illustrated on this chart. Based on the current momentum, PA could take ETH to nearly 2200.

If we project the PA that took place in March/April to what's going on now, we get some interesting possible similar scenarios. However, before making such predictions, we must answer, are the economic and market sentiment and the fundamentals of the market the same as before? I think we all agree, no, and it's much worse. This tells me that this cycle will have a much shorter bullish retracement. However, greed can drive prices higher until reality hits. People could get into this market not wanting to lose out on gains. However, the facts remain, we do not have QE; we have QT, easy money no more, at least not yet. We started this bear cycle in November of 2021, and it's clear that we are seeing a very short-term bullish pullback that will get corrected as the market descends into a concrete bear market and a recession.

For us day traders, it doesn't matter where the market goes. We take this bullish sentiment and PA, and we trade long and short, catching 1-5% of the PA in any direction. Predicting is like looking at the ocean and jumping in early with the surfing board before any waves. We must ride the waves before us; that's where the money is. Don't sink, surf!