ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Inside Resistance Zone. Retrace ?

2017年8月6日

ETHUSD Update: After the 241 resistance break, price has pushed into the 250 to 280 resistance zone that I have been writing about for over a week. The resistance is holding price back at the moment and this could be the beginning of the minor retrace back to attractive support levels.

The BTC breakout to all time highs is the catalyst behind this price push, what prompted that exactly I do not know because that information is not necessary for me to participate in these markets. I am only concerned with what price action is more likely to do next and it appears to be poised for a minor retrace.

I have been writing about the 250 to 280 resistance zone because it is relative to the .618 of the second half of the recent bear swing that took this market to the 136 low about two weeks ago. The zone serves as a good target to take profits and as an area to anticipate a pullback from. At the moment price is hesitating and I would welcome any pullback into the adjusted support levels as a buying opportunity.

The first support I am watching for is the 232 level. This is now the .382 of the recent upswing and must be maintained in order keep this bullish trend intact. If price retraces to this level and reverses, I would be expecting a higher high which should take this market into the next resistance zone in the 300s. If 232 breaks, then we are likely to get a deeper retracement into the 212 to 198 support zone which is related to the .618 of the recent upswing. If price trades back into this zone, I would still be bullish, but would expect more of a consolidation to follow.

IF there is no retrace, price can continue up into the next resistance zone of 306 to 349 (.618 of recent bear swing). It is a wide zone because the magnitude of the bearish swing measured is large. For the moment, this broader resistance zone serves as a reference point for short term profit targets. If you are in a long term position, that's fine, but locking in some profit along the way is never a bad idea.

Some may wonder, if this market is so strong, why not buy it now? It all has to do with the risk vs. reward. Buying highs always carries more risk of a pullback. If I buy now, where is the most sensible place to put my stop? The technical answer is around the 215 area. So that means I have to face around a 45 point risk for maybe a 45 point target (and that's being very optimistic since this market is more likely to pullback off of a high). I want to stack probabilities in my favor, not bet on long shots. I would rather buy at 230, with only 15 to 20 points of risk, and potential to reach the 300s. Along with buy setups in my favor and would rather watch my position slowly advancing in the green, then the other way around. Plus it is easier and a much better idea to add to a position when you are winning.

In summary this market is behaving in line with what the price structure has been saying for some time: strong. Since there is a greater chance of a retrace off the current resistance zone, I prefer to wait for a revisit to the 230 area to look for buy setups. The retrace may not happen, but I would rather stay out until the market offers more attractive reward to risk opportunities. As long as the lower 230 area holds, the uptrend that has taken this market to the current high will still in intact and keep the possibility open for a move up into the 300s.

Questions and comments welcome.