ETHUSD short term bear scenario: Ethereum retrace not done yet?

2019年1月4日

Quick plot to lay out the possible path for one more dip that might be about to start
I am actually BULLISH on Ether but trying to keep neutral in analysis.
Bulls need to get above 154 quickly to invalidate this scenario.

The leg down was a 5 wave impulse, which is what a wave (A) should be.
We might now be in a wave (B) which should be a 3-wave structure.
If we do drop here, then 140 comes into sight for end of wave (C).

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Background:
My ETH journey started a Fib observation from the bottom

Once that played out, I was looking for the retrace zones to enter long again

Above zones played out and as bounce progressed I saw 152 and 156 as possible targets

Then I saw the top coming, sold, and was looking for re-entry zones:

Got some long scalps in per above plan. But now I am wondering if we go down for another leg

2019年1月4日

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Of note, in the live chart on top, there is a very faint zone. I have made it more visible here clearly we are stuck between these energy bands. Breakout to either side could be powerful, especially if it bounces around in there for a long time (several hours)
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2019年1月4日

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Bulls are strong, broke up through the first resistance zone with some gusto. Now comes the blue fib of this entire leg up from 144.46

2019年1月4日

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It definitely noticed that 4.618 but bulls still look strong

2019年1月4日

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Interesting, so it may be this green fib that is working the price right now looks like a perfect impulse within, perhaps making a bigger wave 3 for now.

2019年1月4日

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Odds of the planned ABC have decreased dramatically. and ofc if we get a new local high then maybe I was being overly pessimistic. not out of the woods quite yet, and we EU/UK waking up soon. That part of the world often sells in their morning. So the price AND time are at a critical point here.
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2019年1月4日

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Bulls looking to flip previous resistance into support

2019年1月4日

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Here are the EU/UK morning bears. Lets see if bottom of this zone turns into resistance again

2019年1月4日

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here we are, last support before 145 imo

2019年1月4日

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This leg pierced the 1.618 on micro TF, so I am suspicous of this little bounce

2019年1月4日

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1.6198 confirmed as relevant. But was pierced previously, so still suspicious.

2019年1月4日

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sure enough, the 1.618 gave up. Now to watch the 2.618