ETHUSD : The Start of a Bearish Trend or Just Another Pullback ?
ETH/USD fell off 15% from it's previous h4 high, reacting from a week long squeeze of all major momentum & cycles indicators. Futures contracts funding in the meantime has shown signs of stabilization, meaning the ratio between bulls:bears opened positions is more balanced than before where bulls used to be overbullish short-term. Therefore in the midst of a broader trend that has yet to hit its targets, happening on the upper timeframes, i am still looking to long ETH on short-term timeframes as speculative trend-following.
The h4 chart is offering us what could be assimilated to a pullback, a second retracement — of 23,6 - 38,2 or 50% (in the most extreme cases) — after a set of two directional waves. The prices reacted positively close to the 32% pullback fib at 4024$ et the overlap from the previous major h4 resistance at 3980$ that is now a support. We're also not too far from the support bound of the Andrew' Pitchfork at 3936$ & a footprint spike at 3797$.
Going one timeframe below (h1), we can see we've just retraced up to 38% of the recent h4 bearish movement, meaning if we fail to break that fibonacci level, all the short sellers who sold that area will in no time have their bearish trend following validated. This could lead us to further downward movements & confirmation of the «Scenario B» i've outlined on the following h1 chart
which would at least pressure the prices down to the footprint and bottom of the pitchfork area i've mentioned previously.
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
As always, trade with caution, and don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
Kindly,
J.M.K
The h4 chart is offering us what could be assimilated to a pullback, a second retracement — of 23,6 - 38,2 or 50% (in the most extreme cases) — after a set of two directional waves. The prices reacted positively close to the 32% pullback fib at 4024$ et the overlap from the previous major h4 resistance at 3980$ that is now a support. We're also not too far from the support bound of the Andrew' Pitchfork at 3936$ & a footprint spike at 3797$.
Going one timeframe below (h1), we can see we've just retraced up to 38% of the recent h4 bearish movement, meaning if we fail to break that fibonacci level, all the short sellers who sold that area will in no time have their bearish trend following validated. This could lead us to further downward movements & confirmation of the «Scenario B» i've outlined on the following h1 chart
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
As always, trade with caution, and don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
Kindly,
J.M.K
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