ETHUSD: Bump and Run to Symmetrical(ish) Triangle

2018年2月25日

What was primarily a Bump and Run reversal (stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:bump_and_run_reversal_reversal) is now a weak symmetrical triangle continuation pattern (stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:symmetrical_triangle_continuation).

I call the symmetrical triangle pattern "weak" for two reasons.
1. It has a larger downward slope then upwards, by a significant amount.
2. It is nearing the end of the symmetrical triangle. As the rules of symmetrical triangles state,
'The ideal breakout point occurs 1/2 to 3/4 of the way through the pattern's development or time-span. The time-span of the pattern can be measured from the apex (convergence of upper and lower lines) back to the beginning of the lower trend line (base). A break before the 1/2 way point might be premature and a break too close to the apex may be insignificant. After all, as the apex approaches, a breakout must occur sometime.'
As we are near the apex, the strength of the breakout may be diminished.

So it appears we have a bearish reversal pattern meeting a somewhat bullish continuation pattern. The fall in volume since the triangle began indicates that lots of volume COULD come in at any time, but there is no guarantee.

The Daily MACD doesn't say much, so I used the 1-hour MACD to check divergences, where I found some slightly bull-"ish" divergence. While this looks like it may be enough to hit the death star trend line or POSSIBLY hit the resistance line, it is not telling me that there is going to be a crazy boom to the upside.

What I could see happening for the bulls is a pop to the resistance, then a pop back to support outside of the "death star trendline" for consolidation for another push forward.
What I could equally see happening for the bears is another bounce off the Death Star Trend line pushing ETHUSD down to the 200EMA. Personally, I think picking up some at the 200EMA to ride back to the Death Star Trend line wouldn't be a bad trade if it happens. On the other hand, if ETHUSD does make it past the Death Star Trend line, I would be a buyer back around the support line.
If ETH falls below the 200EMA, I could see the next support zone, labeled life support, as the next support zone around 400-430.

So currently I am neutral.
I will be bullish if we take out the Death Star trend line and stay above the support trend line. I will be uber bullish if we take out the resistance line as well.
I will be bearish if we fall through the support trend line, although I will most likely buy around the 200 EMA for a quick bounce play with a tight stop loss under the 200. I will be uber bearish if we take out the 200 EMA.

These are just my thoughts at the moment, thy will change with the chart! If anyone else sees anything I am missing or disagrees, let me know! The fact that TView allows the conversation is the best part for me, so feel free to point out when you think I'm wrong. Always Be Learnin!

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice, it is for educational purposes only. I'm just a dude who likes charts n stuff ,I am not a financial planner, nor do I think I have ever even owned a planner.