ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Long? Or Wrong?

2017年10月8日

ETHUSD Update: Bullish momentum takes price back up to 315 high while BTC touches 4500. Is this the time to finally give in and buy? NO. When a market looks obvious from a conventional stand point, that is usually time to sell or avoid. Let me explain.

I have been writing about bearish signs appearing in BTC and in this market for weeks now. Minor retracements have been met with persistent buying all while in a resistance zone (BTC) or just under one (ETH). I realize there are fundamental events that are highly anticipated and will be taking effect in the next couple of weeks and perhaps this buying is related to that.

The bearish signals that I have been writing about (pin bars, double tops) have not triggered in any of the markets, which on the short term can be interpreted as an absence of selling. So if these markets are negating the bearish arguments, why not start buying so that further gains will not be missed? Risk, that's why.

Although the bear triggers have not been compromised, these markets still have not pushed through the appropriate highs in order to signal strength of a larger magnitude. 4548 is the number for BTC which clears the .618 resistance zone, and 350 for ETH in order to clear it's .618 resistance zone. These zones warn of a broad lower high which is not obvious to the crowd because everyone is focused on the small time frame price action, and the excitement and euphoria that is all over the media outlets. I do not have any fear of missing out because I know that markets retrace, and my rules guide me NOT to buy highs. And we are at a high (a lower high which is the absolute highest risk area to take on new longs, especially for a swing trade).

This is a great environment for day trading because minor supports are holding, like the 280 area, and price is moving decently relative to the risks associated with that type of strategy, but I am not day trading and more concerned about managing risk than "missing the boat".

At the moment, 303 is the .382 support for this movement, and 296 to 291 is next minor .618 zone which can serve as a good place to look for day trades. If price falls back into the 280s or below, I will be looking for the bearish scenario that I have been writing about. If price pushes above 315, then it is likely to test the 320 to 350 zone, which again can present day trade opportunities in which I will just be an observer of. No swing trade longs for me.

What concerns me the most about this stubborn price action is this: Bloomberg is increasing coverage of these markets, even a former colleague of mine is appearing on Nasdaq's internet news channel and talking about these markets as an authority, meanwhile he sells stock option trading software. From a contrarian perspective, this is equivalent to the shoe shine boy talking about a stock, 100 years ago. They would say when the man on the street was talking about a stock, it was time to sell. It is another way of saying that the majority of the crowd is long, and soon there will be no one left to buy. Back during the Dot.com era, at the height, everywhere you went, every restaurant and party, and even TV shows were referring to stocks. This persisted for about a year before the market peaked. The details may be different, but the idea is the same.

In summary, the short term price action appears to be bullish but hasn't met my criteria for me to justify taking risks on swing trades. If you have the time and patience, minor support levels are offering quick profits if you are disciplined enough to taken them. There is nothing technical about observing general signs of crowd sentiment, but my experience tells me these signs cannot be ignored, even in the face of minor bullish price action. If this market is going to work its way back up to 400 or above, the signs will be much clearer and risks will make much more sense after the resistances are cleared. This is a process, not an event.

Comments and questions welcome.