Observing the largest of trends-THE WEEKLY Trend on ETH for 18´
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Step by step detailed t.a, on Etherium medium, to medium-long term.
Etherium has done so far very well in 2018, major rally from approx. 198 to more than 1400. But ever since these heights were reached, etherium is seeing fairly lower and lower volume(as noted on the graph). Following from this, from Elliott waves, as expected, a correction in the form of the larger fractal was completed, with a bottom of 358(C), and a breakout on (D), going as far as 838.
1. Since 838, etherium has been in a correction, forming a smaller fractal(current bottom 450). Although, right now it's somewhat holding this bottom very nicely, it is getting closer and closer to the Ichimoku cloud. Using Ichimoku as a primary indicator, and with a very basic approach, it can be seen that there is a switch in the Kumo(In red, indicating a bearish segment), and if the pattern breaks down through the cloud, as pointed out on the graph, that would mean that etherium would be entering a bearish market(from Ichimoku cloud theory, pattern>cloud=price follows a bear market). In such case, I can see the price primarily go to 200 as the initially bottom, followed by somewhat of a bounce, and deciding what to do next, which would be too early to be analysed at this point.
2. Etherium has also been trading bellow the 50 week average, as well as the 21 period moving average. By itself 21 period moving average, is somewhat of an momentum/directional indicator, and consistently trading(few periods bellow it) as etherium has done, can be interpreted as the price being negatively affected by the momentum/having a downward directional tension. Analysis on the MACD, as it can be seen is that, on the rally to 838, etherium tried to break through and intersect above the supply line, however that didn't happen, and since the intersection after the major rally to 1423, what can be said is that sellers have been in control ever since, up until now. On the other hand, RSI, at the present point is pretty neutral, hence somewhat meaningless as well.
3.Overall, with the ICO(Initial coin offering) bubble which has been somewhat speculated in the last months, to finally burst, and this being the key factors for etherium's demand and valuation, coupled with the recent economic news from the global markets, as it stands now Etherium is by no means a done and mature product, and these factors could have a considerable effect on the price in the following period. Not to mention, almost all of the crypto market follows bitcoin as sort of an "index" market measurement, and if BTC breaks bellow 6000, I can hardly see Etherium not following the same footsteps as bitcoin.
Personal note: I'd only see myself shorting ETH, if this week or next week, ETH breaks the downward trend line of the fractal(Green arrow drawn on the graph). Major move expected in July. Prior to entry, I might do a daily t.a. as well.
Disclaimer:
//This is not a buy or a sell signal, you decide what to do with your own money!//
If you liked my take on etherium or other markets, give it an agree, share or follow for more well-detailed analysis, cheers!
Etherium has done so far very well in 2018, major rally from approx. 198 to more than 1400. But ever since these heights were reached, etherium is seeing fairly lower and lower volume(as noted on the graph). Following from this, from Elliott waves, as expected, a correction in the form of the larger fractal was completed, with a bottom of 358(C), and a breakout on (D), going as far as 838.
1. Since 838, etherium has been in a correction, forming a smaller fractal(current bottom 450). Although, right now it's somewhat holding this bottom very nicely, it is getting closer and closer to the Ichimoku cloud. Using Ichimoku as a primary indicator, and with a very basic approach, it can be seen that there is a switch in the Kumo(In red, indicating a bearish segment), and if the pattern breaks down through the cloud, as pointed out on the graph, that would mean that etherium would be entering a bearish market(from Ichimoku cloud theory, pattern>cloud=price follows a bear market). In such case, I can see the price primarily go to 200 as the initially bottom, followed by somewhat of a bounce, and deciding what to do next, which would be too early to be analysed at this point.
2. Etherium has also been trading bellow the 50 week average, as well as the 21 period moving average. By itself 21 period moving average, is somewhat of an momentum/directional indicator, and consistently trading(few periods bellow it) as etherium has done, can be interpreted as the price being negatively affected by the momentum/having a downward directional tension. Analysis on the MACD, as it can be seen is that, on the rally to 838, etherium tried to break through and intersect above the supply line, however that didn't happen, and since the intersection after the major rally to 1423, what can be said is that sellers have been in control ever since, up until now. On the other hand, RSI, at the present point is pretty neutral, hence somewhat meaningless as well.
3.Overall, with the ICO(Initial coin offering) bubble which has been somewhat speculated in the last months, to finally burst, and this being the key factors for etherium's demand and valuation, coupled with the recent economic news from the global markets, as it stands now Etherium is by no means a done and mature product, and these factors could have a considerable effect on the price in the following period. Not to mention, almost all of the crypto market follows bitcoin as sort of an "index" market measurement, and if BTC breaks bellow 6000, I can hardly see Etherium not following the same footsteps as bitcoin.
Personal note: I'd only see myself shorting ETH, if this week or next week, ETH breaks the downward trend line of the fractal(Green arrow drawn on the graph). Major move expected in July. Prior to entry, I might do a daily t.a. as well.
Disclaimer:
//This is not a buy or a sell signal, you decide what to do with your own money!//
If you liked my take on etherium or other markets, give it an agree, share or follow for more well-detailed analysis, cheers!
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4hr/Daily Update. Short run some upward tension, however I'd say 200$ would be the target.
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