以太坊做多
Why Am I putting everything into ETHUSD?
已更新
ETHUSD is positioned strongly to recover the fastest from the recent pullback; although it does appear there is room for some more downside risk still at play (~17% to the lower end of the MA supports). Price is currently ranging between $210 – 240; with a rising RSI – a traditional indicator that a continuation move may be setting up (commonly known as a bull trap).
The Weekly chart (lower right) demonstrates the sharp decline witnessed last week; though it needs to be maintained that anyone who bought in the last 6 months is probably still seeing positive returns. After rejecting off the 70.0 RSI; we saw the correlation to the overall market sentiment and a race into cash-based products (e.g. bonds).
On the daily chart (lower centre) we can see that open interest through Bitfinex is reducing – with short positions being almost non-existent. That shows a very strong bullish bias in the leverage markets. The reduction in positions also helps to ensure we don’t end up in a position where long margin calls result in a cascading effect (Hi Bitmex…). We can see that the 28D MA is acting as resistance above the price actions – however we seem to be stalled out at a lower bound of $210. Looking through the historical price action; there doesn’t appear to be much to support the idea of this being the base for a bounce in any meaningful way. On-Balance Volume (OBV) on both the weekly and daily has largely recovered from the pullback; suggesting that volume on the ‘green’ periods is enabling volume flow back into the market.
This brings us to the big question; are we going to bounce soon?
There is strong history of price action at $200 and $180; which are roughly in line with the current moving averages for 13 weeks, 26 weeks, and 52 weeks. With 3 key MAs all with 10% of each other; it is no wonder we saw so much volatility recently. As such, we believe that scaling in lightly at $210 and incrementally increasing through to $200 before accelerating through $180 is a reasonable approach to taking long term entry positions.
Expecting the 26W and 13W MAs to cross the 52W within 4 weeks; we should see a further influx of money as media picks up on the bullish sentiments (100/50 cross is also in action).
Moonshots and rockets make for cool names only…they are hardly a good trading strategy. However with 3 key MAs within 15% of the lower threshold of the price rage; some smart entries can create a portfolio position of less than 10% risk and 40%+ in upside potential.
Happy Trading!
The Weekly chart (lower right) demonstrates the sharp decline witnessed last week; though it needs to be maintained that anyone who bought in the last 6 months is probably still seeing positive returns. After rejecting off the 70.0 RSI; we saw the correlation to the overall market sentiment and a race into cash-based products (e.g. bonds).
On the daily chart (lower centre) we can see that open interest through Bitfinex is reducing – with short positions being almost non-existent. That shows a very strong bullish bias in the leverage markets. The reduction in positions also helps to ensure we don’t end up in a position where long margin calls result in a cascading effect (Hi Bitmex…). We can see that the 28D MA is acting as resistance above the price actions – however we seem to be stalled out at a lower bound of $210. Looking through the historical price action; there doesn’t appear to be much to support the idea of this being the base for a bounce in any meaningful way. On-Balance Volume (OBV) on both the weekly and daily has largely recovered from the pullback; suggesting that volume on the ‘green’ periods is enabling volume flow back into the market.
This brings us to the big question; are we going to bounce soon?
There is strong history of price action at $200 and $180; which are roughly in line with the current moving averages for 13 weeks, 26 weeks, and 52 weeks. With 3 key MAs all with 10% of each other; it is no wonder we saw so much volatility recently. As such, we believe that scaling in lightly at $210 and incrementally increasing through to $200 before accelerating through $180 is a reasonable approach to taking long term entry positions.
Expecting the 26W and 13W MAs to cross the 52W within 4 weeks; we should see a further influx of money as media picks up on the bullish sentiments (100/50 cross is also in action).
Moonshots and rockets make for cool names only…they are hardly a good trading strategy. However with 3 key MAs within 15% of the lower threshold of the price rage; some smart entries can create a portfolio position of less than 10% risk and 40%+ in upside potential.
Happy Trading!
注释
Here is an additional factor of confluence. The 0500 and 0618 almost perfectly marry to the $200 and $180 thresholds that are expected to become important in the next movement.
This also presents a rational answer to the question of why the price stalled out at $220; which is reflective of the 0382 fib line.
Is the market bullish enough to bounce at 0382? We don't believe so!
注释
While other coins are starting to curl up (looking at you BTC...; ETH is still deciding it's future.
Are we going to see it push through?
注释
As expected; we were unable to see a sustained breakout at the 0382 line; and have come down to almost touch the $200. We are now also seeing a reasonably large bullish divergence on the RSI...
交易开始
Time to test the theory. The first key test is that of the 52W MA.
Risk from here is around 10% on the downside, so work within your own perspective portfolio risks.
交易结束：到达止损
Safe to say that it's hard to be bullish right now. There is a lot of hysteria in the markets. Be safe, and be sure of your movements.Happy Trading!
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