ETH would potentially lead to market downtrend
已更新
In Q1 2021, I often mentioned that one of the conditions I ALWAYS look for is a bullish market confirmation, that is the ETH/BTC pair, ETH should go up first against Satoshi BTC.
In recent days, after my last analysis above BTC before X-Mas 2021, ETH did the contrary trend. Indeed, we are now experiencing a very bad mood or fear in the market.
There are two potential targets in my chart, as an EW novice, I tried to count some possible waves.
Market structure:
Monthly, weekly and daily TF are all bearish. Now it is so dangerous for buyers or Hodler, my probability for a reversal trend is only 20%, IF YES Bulls MUST show up before the end of Jan 2022. Perhaps there is still a lot of BIG WHALES at last support.
However, I doubt that there is still a possibility BIG Whales will dump the market even at a lower price, then they could continue to accumulate all ATH coins and Satoshi at the lower levels.
ETH: last ( but not that strong support) 3000-3100
My target for the first complete wave 3 of 5 at 2600-2800.
Second target wave 5 of 5: retest the Monthly low of 2021.
Reversal trend: MUST show it hands with at least 2 weekly closings green candle and we MUST see ETH soon well above 4000 to confirm the bottom now.
Overall, I do not expect to see a bearish or long-run 2-3 years bearish market like in 2018-2020. However, "keep it simple and stupid" whenever my BTC is traded below my EMA 21 weekly, it will confirm a bearish market to me, the longer BTC stays below that level, the longer bearish market would last. I would not fully agree with the comparison between the Macro outlook in 2017-2018 with 2021-2022. Be prepared and stay on the safe side!
Cheers, and thank you.
In recent days, after my last analysis above BTC before X-Mas 2021, ETH did the contrary trend. Indeed, we are now experiencing a very bad mood or fear in the market.
There are two potential targets in my chart, as an EW novice, I tried to count some possible waves.
Market structure:
Monthly, weekly and daily TF are all bearish. Now it is so dangerous for buyers or Hodler, my probability for a reversal trend is only 20%, IF YES Bulls MUST show up before the end of Jan 2022. Perhaps there is still a lot of BIG WHALES at last support.
However, I doubt that there is still a possibility BIG Whales will dump the market even at a lower price, then they could continue to accumulate all ATH coins and Satoshi at the lower levels.
ETH: last ( but not that strong support) 3000-3100
My target for the first complete wave 3 of 5 at 2600-2800.
Second target wave 5 of 5: retest the Monthly low of 2021.
Reversal trend: MUST show it hands with at least 2 weekly closings green candle and we MUST see ETH soon well above 4000 to confirm the bottom now.
Overall, I do not expect to see a bearish or long-run 2-3 years bearish market like in 2018-2020. However, "keep it simple and stupid" whenever my BTC is traded below my EMA 21 weekly, it will confirm a bearish market to me, the longer BTC stays below that level, the longer bearish market would last. I would not fully agree with the comparison between the Macro outlook in 2017-2018 with 2021-2022. Be prepared and stay on the safe side!
Cheers, and thank you.
注释
First target ETH: 2900 is reached. The second and the third should be reached (as mentioned above) around 1900 USD (possibly some bulls will show off at 2500 first then we will have another leg down). Now the probability we might see a bearish market is increasing with the price action fake breakout on daily chart BTC and most of Ath Coins yesterday.
注释
ETH first bearish target now could be lower than my expectation, 1900 is nothing, be prepared! Same bias since Dec 2021, super bearish. There is no reversal confirmation yet, which mean we are not at THE BOTTOM atm, as writing ETH at 2400.注释
As you see, it is clear to see that ETH did lead the market to the bearish BTC and Athcoin bearish markets. Now the next target bottom of ETH is really hard to find out, it could be 700, 500 or even lower? Anything could happen, remember that last time, ETH went from its peak to below 80-90 $/ ETH. Now you can calculate this time?
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