To hedge long positions - Eurostoxx50

2020年11月6日

As you know, I was looking at the market yesterday after taking profits on the swing up, contemplating whether a short hedge was right.
SPX/S&P500 and US100 (Nasdaq) aren't feasible for short/put options, but as a hedge, look to Europe.
Europe are full of cyclical stocks and their banking sector is particularly weak.

Purely as a hedge against remaining long positions which can't be closed for costs reasons, I personally am getting this on in Options Puts, month end (20 November) slightly out of the money.

2020年11月6日

注释

December Puts are much better value at 6 weeks out rather than 2, for just a twice the premium.
Also, recognize that the majority of the price movement is the upper half of the channel. Risk reward should be calculated accordingly.
I haven't drawn the top red line accurately across the top, so I believe that the index may go a little higher (upper limit at 3250) by which the risk reward will be optimized

2020年11月9日

注释

This market has rotated into higher PE stocks for now. The SPX has retraced about 70% of the wave and Nasdaq after the retracement hasn't moved much at all. Eurostoxx 50 unfortunately, against tradition gave the biggest move and so gar smallest retracement. Options on this position, i will hold through, as presentlythere value plummeted, but volatility is still high. If i was holding a short, I'd look to unwind the position on next retracement fib down.

2020年11月10日

注释

I was just listening to Cramer on a youtube report, who pointed out that not many expected a radical vaccine development to arrive so soon, which lifted the heavily shorted energy sector and older industries. What's been pointed out is that pfitzer only has enough vacancies to go around this year, next year expection total production of 650mil units, so we believe the market got ahead of itself and selling longs which benifited fron the news into the strength/liquidity. As for this idea, the opposite I am applying. The nearest fib down is the 0.618 on this impulsive move up, which finds us the 3322 level. I believe there could be however a full retracement to the trend line break out. With this in mind, I'm hoping to cut losses at a minimally distructive level.

2020年11月10日

注释

This is a new breakout of the retracement. It got as low as the 0.5. However, i believe 3250 will in the next few weeks be met, which would benifit those who are holding out for the full retracement