EURHUF - strong Hun eco data + carry effect
Fundamentals
- Hun core inflation above MNB target -> rate increase probably in March
- wage growth steadily above 10%
- GDP growth above expectation, 5% yoy
The eco picture resembles scenario the Czech case from 2017 where the central bank started raising rates (wage pressure, inflation, housing prices) and the korona strengthened 6-7%.
Technical
- EURHUF short trend
- 318 resistance tested, move above rejected -> next support weekly 200 DMA @ 313
Trade plan
- EURHUF short opened, carry in favor
- Be patient, next rate decision 26th Feb
- Hun core inflation above MNB target -> rate increase probably in March
- wage growth steadily above 10%
- GDP growth above expectation, 5% yoy
The eco picture resembles scenario the Czech case from 2017 where the central bank started raising rates (wage pressure, inflation, housing prices) and the korona strengthened 6-7%.
Technical
- EURHUF short trend
- 318 resistance tested, move above rejected -> next support weekly 200 DMA @ 313
Trade plan
- EURHUF short opened, carry in favor
- Be patient, next rate decision 26th Feb
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