EURJPY's Last Kiss

2020年8月10日

During past weeks Euro has been gaining against most major currencies. The main factor that drove this rally was the impulse of ECB to stimulate and restart the economy with decent monetary package. Since then, the sentiment remained bullish and EURO had faced long-term high which it easily broke. Now the market needs to gain momentum again and on this occasion the chances of possible long position arises.

As the price created new high, we were able to draw a Fibonacci retracement levels from the last swing and thus expect next price of interest for turnover. Very important levels are 50% and 38,2% of Fibonacci, which are also in confluence with the long-term resistance (now support) at $124.22, which is respected since 5th of June and has already accounted for 6 successful retests, which makes it really strong. With the ECB monetary policy consideration it is likely, that the price will continue to surge and at least retests the last swing high.

To make the setup more probable, a supportive trend line (M15) can be drawn to make the timing of the trade even more accurate.

Signals:
- 50% & 38,2% Fibonacci levels of retracement
- Long-term broken resistance, now support to be retested
- Positive ECB sentiment
- Expected break of the corrective M15 trend line

Despite the positive ECB sentiment, it is necessary to think about the macro fundamentals, which set the value in longer time period!