eurnzd at an inflextion. large moves next week
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Price has closed below the daily 200ema; u can see the upper wick just kiss the 200ema line and got rejected. The price almost hit the 1.705 point i've identified as an indicator of a bull trend reversal. It had bounced off the 61.8 fib, but had not showed the rally that i expected.
On the 4hr, u will see an inner ABC wave, and the low of the downwards impulse move coincide exactly with the 1.0 fib extension.
The daily rsi is currently oversold, while the 4hr rsi just exited the oversold zone from the bounce. Oversold rsi does NOT warrant an immediate buy, as seen from the huge rally from aug and early oct. However, it does mean that u shouldn't be looking to sell immediately. Even if u do take a close below 200ema as a bearish signal, and price does move lower, i will wait for retracement to the trendline from the 1.618 fib extension of the inner ABC wave.
On a sidenote, euraud, a very similar pair, had bounced off the 200ema and closed above it. Given that aud and nzd move in tandem, both pairs will move with similar trends. nzd had rallied much more compared to aud from a weak dollar, but nzd won't go into an uptrend without aud. That makes this disparity very interesting.
In the long term, as trade war fears ease, eurnzd/euraud will definitely break its uptrend with rigor. Now, from a fundamental perspectives, the uptrend makes sense, as nzd/aud weakens and eur is rangebound.
On the 4hr, u will see an inner ABC wave, and the low of the downwards impulse move coincide exactly with the 1.0 fib extension.
The daily rsi is currently oversold, while the 4hr rsi just exited the oversold zone from the bounce. Oversold rsi does NOT warrant an immediate buy, as seen from the huge rally from aug and early oct. However, it does mean that u shouldn't be looking to sell immediately. Even if u do take a close below 200ema as a bearish signal, and price does move lower, i will wait for retracement to the trendline from the 1.618 fib extension of the inner ABC wave.
On a sidenote, euraud, a very similar pair, had bounced off the 200ema and closed above it. Given that aud and nzd move in tandem, both pairs will move with similar trends. nzd had rallied much more compared to aud from a weak dollar, but nzd won't go into an uptrend without aud. That makes this disparity very interesting.
In the long term, as trade war fears ease, eurnzd/euraud will definitely break its uptrend with rigor. Now, from a fundamental perspectives, the uptrend makes sense, as nzd/aud weakens and eur is rangebound.
注释
From the nzdusd chart, we can see a double top, and the potential formation of a head & shoulders. Do also keep out on that, as these are pairs with the highest volume and price contribution.
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