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EURSEK July 4th, 2023

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The Swedish economy will not shrink as much as previously expected, and the level of unemployment will stay relatively steady, according to a government agency. However, high inflation and higher interest rates have had a negative impact on Swedish households, leading to a significant decline in housing construction. This, along with a slowdown in exports, will result in a 0.4 percent decrease in the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023, which is less severe than the 0.6 percent contraction predicted earlier. Despite the economic downturn, there are no clear signs of weakening in the labor market. Unemployment is projected to be 7.5 percent in 2023 and is expected to rise to 8.1 percent in 2024 before declining in subsequent years. Inflation is predicted to remain high at 8.7 percent in 2023 but will decrease to 2.7 percent in 2024. Inflation is then anticipated to drop to 1.2 percent in 2025 before slightly surpassing the Swedish central bank's target of 2 percent in 2026 and 2027. The Riksbank, Sweden's central bank, has raised interest rates to address inflation, with a further increase expected before a subsequent reduction in 2024. The interest rate will then be maintained at 1.75 percent from 2025 to 2027 following additional cuts.

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