EUR/USD daily overview

2018年8月13日

The common European currency has lost considerable 2.13% against the US Dollar during the last two sessions. Traders have pushed the rate lower due to fears of the Euro’s exposure to the crisis-hit Turkey.

By Monday morning, the rate had plunged to a fresh 13-month low, being supported by the monthly S3 at 1.1365. In addition, the bottom boundary of a newly-drawn channel is likewise located there. Technical signals are pointing to a recovery in this session, as shown by gradually-recovering indicators. In this case, daily gains should be capped near the 55-hour SMA at 1.15.

However, traders should still take into account that Turkey may still cause some downside pressure on the Euro before the expected appreciation actually takes place. A possible target is the psychological 1.13 mark.

2018年8月14日

注释

EUR/USD managed to regain some ground following a reversal form the senior channel and the monthly S3 on Monday. This advance, however, was very limited, as the rate remained under pressure by the 55-hour SMA.

This minor appreciation has now picked up the slight upward tendency of technical indicators on both the 1H and 4H time-frames. This means that this week could bring further momentum north.

If looking at today, the Euro has to overcome the strong resistance of the aforementioned moving average at 1.1424 in order to move higher. The overall upside potential for today is the 100-hour SMA at 1.15.

In the meantime, a fall should exceed the 1.1350 mark only if some outside pressure is put on the pair.

2018年8月15日

注释

Euro bulls failed to gather the necessary momentum to dash through the 55-hour SMA. Instead, EUR/USD breached the monthly S3 and the senior channel just to test the weekly S1 at 1.1325 early on Wednesday. This level is a historical resistance/support point, as well as the pair’s lowest position since June, 2017.

Despite flashing bullish signals during the past two days, fundamentals have weighted heavily on the European common currency. However, the strong bearish pressure has visibly allayed.

This allows to think that another test of the 55-hour SMA is likely to occur near 1.14 today. A breakout of this cluster should result in further advance up to the 50.00% Fibo and the monthly S2 circa 1.1460. In case the opposite scenario occurs, the daily target is the weekly S2 at 1.1240.

2018年8月16日

注释

Even though the weekly S1 did not hold the Euro mid-Wednesday, its subsequent fall against the US Dollar was not significant due to the psychological 1.13 level being located nearby.

Bears were not able to breach this 13-month low, thus sending the pair considerably higher during the following hours. It managed to breach the monthly S3 and the 55–hour SMA along the way, thus finally catching up with technical indicators which were showing an upward-sloping tendency already on Tuesday.

Given that the rate breached the 100-hour SMA, it is likely that the current surge continues in this session, as well. The nearest resistance is the relatively distant monthly S2, the weekly PP and the 200-hour SMA at 1.1480.

Meanwhile, a fall is unlikely to go below 1.13.

2018年8月20日

注释

The common European currency met on Friday and did not manage to pass the resistance of the 200-hour simple moving average against the US Dollar. The event resulted in a decline, which lasted into the morning hours of Monday’s trading session.

On Monday morning the currency exchange rate found support in the junior ascending channel pattern’s lower trend line, confirming its strength once more.

Meanwhile, the 200-hour SMA was approaching from the upside. Due to that reason the pair is set to be squeezed in between the resistance and the support line. The squeeze is bound to end up in a break out.