Harmonic AB=CD bullish pattern nearly in play on the EUR!

2015年7月16日

Focus from the Greek debt situation may well be fading on the EUR/USD as price continued to plunge even though Greece appears to have finally reached a deal with its creditors. During this sell-off, the round number 1.0900 was broken/retested and is currently seen holding firm at 1.0875 – just above a 4hr Harmonic AB=CD bullish pattern at 1.0847-1.0800. We know that the Euro has been plummeting for most of the week, but this beauty is just too good to miss as this AB=CD pattern converges with some very interesting structure:

1. Encapsulates the daily swap level 1.0820.
2. The lower limit of our AB=CD pattern has been expanded slightly to include the 1.0800 round number which also represents the top-side of a weekly demand area at 1.0519-1.0798.
3. 4hr trendline convergence from the low 1.0461.
4. Fibonacci extension value 1.272%.

However, seeing as how it is the last trading day of the week, and rumors could still flood the wire regarding Greece, we are not going to place a pending buy order at the AB=CD Harmonic base even though we think a bounce at the very least will be seen. Instead, we’re going to patiently watch lower timeframe price action once/if price reaches our area, and only enter should buying strength be seen.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 1.0847/1.0800 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Stop loss: 1.0785).
• Sells: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).