EURUSD Insight

10月15日

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Last week, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for September was released, coming in below expectations. The September PPI remained flat at 0.0% month-on-month, while the core PPI rose by 0.1%, falling short of the 0.2% forecasted by the market. As a result, concerns over inflation, which had been heightened by the previously released September CPI, were somewhat alleviated by the PPI. This has strengthened the market's expectation for a 25-basis-point rate cut at the November FOMC meeting.

Meanwhile, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction territory at 44.8, below market expectations, further reinforcing the likelihood of a rate cut in October. Additionally, the Eurozone CPI showed a faster-than-expected decline in inflation, coming in at 1.8%, which has also fueled rate cut expectations.

Upcoming key dates:

- October 16: UK September Consumer Price Index (CPI)
- October 17: Eurozone September CPI, ECB rate decision, U.S. September Retail Sales

The EUR/USD pair is forming a short-term upward trend, but it has recently broken through the central trendline, suggesting a decline towards the lower trendline. As seen in the chart, a drop to the 1.08000 level is expected, followed by a rebound that could push the pair up to the 1.14000 level. However, with the ECB leaning towards monetary easing and rate cuts, we will keep a close eye on the possibility of the pair breaking below the 1.08000 level.

If unexpected movements occur, we will quickly adjust our strategy.