EWA. EURUSD - An Ending Diagonal (Wedge)

2016年3月4日

And so, after a little break in falling down, in the middle of august '15, EURO continues his journey to the south. Perhaps, now there is forming an ending diagonal in the wave 5 (or c). Why do I think so? As we can see, there are a lot of correction waves (ABC), both up and down. Therefore, there are two possible scenarios:

• The correction up will continue in the wave C, and the whole model will be a flat (marked with gray color). In this case, wave C can be an ending diagonal as well.
  
• There will be formed an endind diagonal, and the current "ABC's" are its wave I and II. After it's finished, the currency will start a major correction, but it'll be not earlier than next year.
  

Why do I think it's the second scenario, even the ending diagonals are not so common? In the wave II, there were formed a beautiful triangle in its wave {B}. As we remember, accordind to the Elliot Wave rules, a triangle could be only a wave 4 or B. Obviously, it cannot be a wave 4, therefore it's a B-wave. The question is, it's a B-wave in the I-st wave of upside diagonal or it is in the II-nd wave of the downside diagonal?

My trading plan:
March has started with a little correction, and it's a good oportunity to sell. So, I open a short possition, even the correction can go further, with a stop-loss order at the local maximum - 1,137. Once the order is filled, it means I will trade the second scenario. I want to trade wave 3 only (because to trade wave 5 in an ending diagonal is too dangerous), so the target zone is, at least, 1,05, but probably it will be 1,04 or even more. So, the risk/reward ratio is acceptable.

2016年3月4日

交易开始

2016年3月10日

注释

Today was a funny day, and it's a perfect demonstration why fundamental analysis is quite hard to use. Fortunatelly, my trade is still active. So I'm waiting for the end of correction and moving to south.