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EUR/USD Faces Pressure Amid Strong USD and Risk-Aversion

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The EUR/USD pair started the new week with a bearish gap, falling to its weakest level in a month below 1.0750. Despite technical indicators on the H4 timeframe suggesting oversold conditions, the Euro might struggle to stage a significant rebound given the current risk-averse market environment.

Market Overview

The US Dollar (USD) has gained strength following a robust jobs report last Friday, which forced EUR/USD to erase its weekly gains. Nonfarm Payrolls in the US rose by 272,000 in May, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 185,000 and April's increase of 165,000. This better-than-expected job growth has bolstered the USD, adding downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

Technical Analysis

1. Oversold Conditions: The RSI indicator on the H4 timeframe points to oversold conditions, suggesting that the Euro might be due for a rebound. However, the current market sentiment is not supportive of a strong recovery.

2. Price Gap: The EUR/USD left a price gap between the 1.0780 and 1.0800 area. Market participants typically fill these gaps, indicating a potential upward movement to this range in the near term.

3. Fibonacci and RSI Divergence: The current price level is within a potential reversal zone based on Fibonacci retracement levels. Additionally, the RSI shows a divergence, which could signal a forthcoming bullish correction.

Short-Term Outlook

Despite the bearish sentiment, our outlook for EUR/USD is cautiously optimistic in the short term due to the technical indicators. With no significant economic news expected until Wednesday, the pair may experience low volatility, allowing for potential consolidation or a mild recovery. The key area to watch is the price gap at 1.0780-1.0800, which might be filled soon.

Trading Strategy

Given the current setup, a long position could be considered around the current levels. The oversold RSI and the price gap provide a basis for expecting a short-term reversal. Traders should monitor the 1.0780-1.0800 area closely, as filling this gap could offer a decent opportunity for gains.

However, it's crucial to remain cautious and use appropriate risk management strategies, as the overall market sentiment remains risk-averse, and the strong USD could continue to exert pressure on the Euro.

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