FULL ANALYSIS: EURUSD: MONTHLY CHART 10/2015

2015年10月11日

Here is a MONTHLY chart that I posted more than 2 months ago. There isn't much change as compared to the current moonthly chart you see above since these are monthly price movements but you can see what I predicted more than 2 months ago is still relevant: In this chart from 2 months ago, I didn't include my wave counts but in the updated chart above, I have includedd an updated wave count.


WAVE COUNT
In this MONTHLY Chart, what I am showing is that this current downtrend this pair has been in for years now is a ABC (5-3-5) corrective wave. Wave A and wave B have already completed and the wave C is in progress. Within that wave C, prices are completing a 5-wave move down. And within that 5-wave move, prices are currently in a corrective retracement wave IV. I don't expect that this wave IV will retrace too far because if my count is correct, the wave II was an fairly deep ABC correction so wave IV should not be.

WOLFE WAVE
A Wolfe Wave was completed and prices have started the decline towards the Wolf Wave target line. That target is way farther down suggesting that prices still have a LONG WAY to drop. Remember, Wolfe Waves are independent of any wave count, structure or other patterns. They exist solely on their own without regards to anything else on the chart.

PATTERNS
There are 2 POTENTIAL harmonic patterns that are also suggesting that there is a LONG WAY yet to drop for this pair. One is a bat and the other is a deep crab. Both patterns would complete very near to each other. But remember, this is a MONTHLY chart so even a small difference between these 2 pattern completion represent a large number of pips!

CONCLUSION
Overall, on a SUPER LONG TERM basis, I am very, VERY BEARISH on this pair for the future. Right now, it's just doing a relatively small wave IV consolidation on a monthly scale. Once this consolidation is completed, we should see a resumption of the downtrend and probably a relatively strong wave V down. There will plenty of pips to be made then. More than likely, we'll see this happen next year in QE1 when the Fed finally decides to raise the interest rates setting the stage for EUR to fall.