EURUSD: watch for inflation data
The US non-farm payrolls in March added 303K which was absolutely above market expectations of 200K. This news heated market expectations that the rates in the US might stay much longer higher from previously expected. At the same time, retail sales in February were -0.7% on a yearly basis, again better from market forecast of -1.3%. Retail sales were down by -0.5% in February. Unemployment rate in the US declined in March to 3.8% from 3.9% posted previously. The ISM Services PMI for March was 51.4, lower from expected 52.7. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for March was standing at 50.3, better than the market forecast of 48.4. Average hourly earnings were higher by 0.3% in March, which led to 4.1% increase on a yearly basis, and in line with market forecast.
Inflation rate in Germany preliminary for March is 0.4% on a monthly basis, better from expected 0.6%. On a yearly basis it was standing at 2.2%, in line with market expectations. At the same time inflation rate in the Euro Zone flash for March was 0.8%, while core inflation for the same period was standing at 2.9% on a yearly basis, a bit better from market forecast of 3.0%. Unemployment rate in the Euro Zone in February was 6.5%, a bit higher from the forecasted 6.4%.
Release of the job market figures in the US impact significantly increased market volatility. The currency pair started the previous week around 1.08 level, but swiftly spiked at 1.088, in order to return to the level of 1.0835 as of the end of the week. The RSI shortly reached the level of 35, however, swiftly returned toward the level of 50, expressing market uncertainty which side to trade. Moving average of 50 days is still moving as MA200 line, where it could not be clearly noted whether actual cross between two lines occurred or not two weeks ago.
The ECB interest rate decision is scheduled for the week ahead, however, markets are currently not too concerned about the outcome of this decision. All eyes are currently switched to the US inflation rate for March, which will be released also in the week ahead. Depending on these data, some further volatility might continue for the currency pair. The support line at 1.08 has been tested, and most probably will be tested in the week ahead. A move toward the higher grounds is also probable, but not above the 1.09 level. On the opposite side, there is a lower probability that the currency pair might test levels below 1.08 in the week ahead.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
Euro: ECB Interest rate decision, ECB press conference after the ECB meeting, Final inflation rate for March in Germany,
USD: Inflation rate for March, release of FOMC Minutes, PPI for March, Michigan consumer Sentiment preliminary for April.
Inflation rate in Germany preliminary for March is 0.4% on a monthly basis, better from expected 0.6%. On a yearly basis it was standing at 2.2%, in line with market expectations. At the same time inflation rate in the Euro Zone flash for March was 0.8%, while core inflation for the same period was standing at 2.9% on a yearly basis, a bit better from market forecast of 3.0%. Unemployment rate in the Euro Zone in February was 6.5%, a bit higher from the forecasted 6.4%.
Release of the job market figures in the US impact significantly increased market volatility. The currency pair started the previous week around 1.08 level, but swiftly spiked at 1.088, in order to return to the level of 1.0835 as of the end of the week. The RSI shortly reached the level of 35, however, swiftly returned toward the level of 50, expressing market uncertainty which side to trade. Moving average of 50 days is still moving as MA200 line, where it could not be clearly noted whether actual cross between two lines occurred or not two weeks ago.
The ECB interest rate decision is scheduled for the week ahead, however, markets are currently not too concerned about the outcome of this decision. All eyes are currently switched to the US inflation rate for March, which will be released also in the week ahead. Depending on these data, some further volatility might continue for the currency pair. The support line at 1.08 has been tested, and most probably will be tested in the week ahead. A move toward the higher grounds is also probable, but not above the 1.09 level. On the opposite side, there is a lower probability that the currency pair might test levels below 1.08 in the week ahead.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
Euro: ECB Interest rate decision, ECB press conference after the ECB meeting, Final inflation rate for March in Germany,
USD: Inflation rate for March, release of FOMC Minutes, PPI for March, Michigan consumer Sentiment preliminary for April.
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