欧元/美元做空
EURUSD: Pullback before the crash!
The EUR/USD continues its downward trend, recently touching a new cycle low around 1.0176 as the US Dollar maintains its relentless rally, fueled by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for an extended period. The Greenback’s strength has been amplified by a fifth consecutive bullish session, with the DXY surpassing the critical 110.00 level. Investors have sharply revised their outlook on Fed policy, reducing the probability of significant rate cuts in the near term. This shift in sentiment follows a robust Nonfarm Payrolls report and hawkish remarks from Fed officials, emphasizing the priority of taming inflation before contemplating further easing.
On the policy front, while the Fed recently trimmed its benchmark rate to 4.25%-4.50%, Chair Powell’s cautious tone during the final press conference of 2024 left markets in little doubt that any future rate cuts will be gradual. Powell underscored the need to anchor inflation closer to the 2% target and pointed out that despite some softening, the labor market remains resilient. This narrative has bolstered USD demand and widened the divergence with the European Central Bank’s stance.
In contrast, the ECB faces mounting pressure to sustain its easing cycle amid a deteriorating economic outlook across the eurozone, particularly in Germany, where industrial performance has been lackluster. Despite a marginal rise in inflation figures for December, ECB policymakers seem committed to prioritizing growth over inflation control in the short term. This divergence in central bank policies has created a headwind for the euro, further weakening EUR/USD and increasing the likelihood of a test of parity.
Adding to the complexity, potential trade policy shifts under the incoming US administration could inject additional volatility. Proposals for renewed tariffs could stoke inflationary pressures in the US, compelling the Fed to adopt a more aggressive tightening stance. Such a scenario would exacerbate the euro’s struggles, as a stronger USD and continued ECB easing would widen the interest rate differential between the two economies.
Looking ahead, the focus will remain on key data releases, including US CPI and Retail Sales, alongside eurozone Industrial Production and German inflation data. These reports will offer crucial insights into the respective economic trajectories and may set the tone for future price action. However, in the current context, the EUR/USD appears poised to remain under pressure as the fundamental backdrop heavily favors the Greenback. Until there is a significant shift in economic or policy expectations, the pair may continue its march towards parity.
On the policy front, while the Fed recently trimmed its benchmark rate to 4.25%-4.50%, Chair Powell’s cautious tone during the final press conference of 2024 left markets in little doubt that any future rate cuts will be gradual. Powell underscored the need to anchor inflation closer to the 2% target and pointed out that despite some softening, the labor market remains resilient. This narrative has bolstered USD demand and widened the divergence with the European Central Bank’s stance.
In contrast, the ECB faces mounting pressure to sustain its easing cycle amid a deteriorating economic outlook across the eurozone, particularly in Germany, where industrial performance has been lackluster. Despite a marginal rise in inflation figures for December, ECB policymakers seem committed to prioritizing growth over inflation control in the short term. This divergence in central bank policies has created a headwind for the euro, further weakening EUR/USD and increasing the likelihood of a test of parity.
Adding to the complexity, potential trade policy shifts under the incoming US administration could inject additional volatility. Proposals for renewed tariffs could stoke inflationary pressures in the US, compelling the Fed to adopt a more aggressive tightening stance. Such a scenario would exacerbate the euro’s struggles, as a stronger USD and continued ECB easing would widen the interest rate differential between the two economies.
Looking ahead, the focus will remain on key data releases, including US CPI and Retail Sales, alongside eurozone Industrial Production and German inflation data. These reports will offer crucial insights into the respective economic trajectories and may set the tone for future price action. However, in the current context, the EUR/USD appears poised to remain under pressure as the fundamental backdrop heavily favors the Greenback. Until there is a significant shift in economic or policy expectations, the pair may continue its march towards parity.
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