EURUSD Short in light of Greek woes; USD Safe Haven Status

2015年7月6日

Might be difficult to get this ball rolling with a smooth start but in the event of a proper channel breach (pictured) and a solid daily close below 1.100, there's about 550 Pips on offer till the March low of 1.045 if risk aversion truly kicks in, coupled with a rapid devaluation of the EUR.

The EUR is currently a moderately risky asset to hold what with Greece uncertainties weighing down on the currency. The USD may prove to be a better safe haven over time, despite the temporary (citation needed) lull in economic data, more so the Jobs Figures.

Below the longer-term 1.081 Pivot, more bears may begin to check-in, otherwise this level is expected to act as a level of significant support.

Risks:

• A continuation in poor/mediocre data prints from the US.
  
• A credible, transparent and sustainable solution to the Greece fiasco that is taken as a positive to the EUR.
  
• Incredibly good EUR data prints that reflects a sudden and robust pickup in economic growth in the Eurozone.
  
• Some weirdly long pin-bar that is as a result of rapid buying of the EUR and then sudden selling which would take out stops at 1.200 in a spiky flash.