Swing Trade Idea on Ford

2022年1月24日So hear me out. Ford filled a gap back down to the 21ish area on Friday and briefly broke through a support level just under 21 before the day ended. I see this thing continuing down to test the next support just above 19 this week. To add gas to the flame the dividend is also happening this week which will slightly add to the drop which might even take us down to 18. However, shortly after that we have earnings coming out. Ford, in the last 6 earnings releases, has absolutely obliterated the EPS estimate by +$0.24, +$0.16, +$0.73, +$0.41, +$0.43, and +$0.95 respectively. This, obviously, caused large spikes after every earnings release usually around the several dollar range.

My plan, in regards to all this, is to hold puts (which I bought early on Friday) through the dividend, then close those and pick up some far out calls to hold through earnings and beyond, since fundamentally I'm still bullish on Ford as a company over the long term.

I am, by no means, a trading expert. I am more so asking for tips and advice for this. Does anyone else like this idea? Am I way off? Anybody else want to try this with me?

Good luck this week!