2024-11-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax xetra - 19300 was crushed early and we tested 19200 and given yesterday. Market tried to reverse it but failed below the breakout point. That’s bearish on one hand but we closed above the daily and 1h 20ema. Bulls need 19500 and bears 19100. We are trading right in the middle of it and that zone is death for your account. Wait for a strong breakout. It will likely happen tomorrow.
comment: Market hit the midpoint of this trading range and went back above 19300. We are in no mans land between 19200 and 19400. Bearish below, bullish above. Break above 19350 tomorrow and we will see 19400 and likely 19460 afterwards. Fail at 19200 and we go down to 19000. Absolute in balance is what this is, so no bias on my end.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19200 - 19400
bull case: Bulls need a 1h close above 19350 for higher prices. That’s all there is to it right now.
Invalidation is below 19250.
bear case: Bears want to stay inside the bear channel and test 19200 again. We are seeing many converging lines for tomorrow, so it’s reasonable to hope for a bigger trend day tomorrow.
Invalidation is above 19350.
short term: Neutral. Clear levels given, hoping for a big day tomorrow.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Short from the open, which was a bit unexpected imo. Market then formed clear and expected support at 19200, which was a good long for 200+ points.
tl;dr
dax xetra - 19300 was crushed early and we tested 19200 and given yesterday. Market tried to reverse it but failed below the breakout point. That’s bearish on one hand but we closed above the daily and 1h 20ema. Bulls need 19500 and bears 19100. We are trading right in the middle of it and that zone is death for your account. Wait for a strong breakout. It will likely happen tomorrow.
comment: Market hit the midpoint of this trading range and went back above 19300. We are in no mans land between 19200 and 19400. Bearish below, bullish above. Break above 19350 tomorrow and we will see 19400 and likely 19460 afterwards. Fail at 19200 and we go down to 19000. Absolute in balance is what this is, so no bias on my end.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19200 - 19400
bull case: Bulls need a 1h close above 19350 for higher prices. That’s all there is to it right now.
Invalidation is below 19250.
bear case: Bears want to stay inside the bear channel and test 19200 again. We are seeing many converging lines for tomorrow, so it’s reasonable to hope for a bigger trend day tomorrow.
Invalidation is above 19350.
short term: Neutral. Clear levels given, hoping for a big day tomorrow.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Short from the open, which was a bit unexpected imo. Market then formed clear and expected support at 19200, which was a good long for 200+ points.
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