2024-09-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Sideways. I won’t write much about this. Markets refuse to go lower but also not much higher. Best now is to wait for the clear breakout that will likely happen this week. I have zero bias to which direction it will go. I am not a fortune teller. Both sides have reasonable arguments, despite this being one of, if not the biggest asset bubble in history.
comment: Market continues to contract. Many lines on my chart but all of them are valid until broken. Will see a bigger breakout tomorrow and or Friday.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19000 - 19200
bull case: Bulls are somewhat very slightly favored since we are making higher highs and higher lows but barely. Not much changed since last Thursday. We are near the ath and market refuses to go down. Structure on the daily chart has potential for a breakout above. Wait for it to happen or scalp small.
Invalidation is below 19000.
bear case: Bears try but once market begins to stall they are out. Their only objective is to keep the market below the ath or near it. Not much more to say until they print something below 19000 again. Everything below 18800 would be amazing for the bears and would probably end this bull move.
Invalidation is above 19250.
short term: Neutral and waiting for the breakout. Bulls want above 19250 (roughly 19100 on xetra) and bears below 18800. Everything in between is a dead zone where market is in balance.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this.
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Buying 19000 or shorting near 19100. Bear trend line from 19195 was decent to short.
tl;dr
Indexes - Sideways. I won’t write much about this. Markets refuse to go lower but also not much higher. Best now is to wait for the clear breakout that will likely happen this week. I have zero bias to which direction it will go. I am not a fortune teller. Both sides have reasonable arguments, despite this being one of, if not the biggest asset bubble in history.
comment: Market continues to contract. Many lines on my chart but all of them are valid until broken. Will see a bigger breakout tomorrow and or Friday.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19000 - 19200
bull case: Bulls are somewhat very slightly favored since we are making higher highs and higher lows but barely. Not much changed since last Thursday. We are near the ath and market refuses to go down. Structure on the daily chart has potential for a breakout above. Wait for it to happen or scalp small.
Invalidation is below 19000.
bear case: Bears try but once market begins to stall they are out. Their only objective is to keep the market below the ath or near it. Not much more to say until they print something below 19000 again. Everything below 18800 would be amazing for the bears and would probably end this bull move.
Invalidation is above 19250.
short term: Neutral and waiting for the breakout. Bulls want above 19250 (roughly 19100 on xetra) and bears below 18800. Everything in between is a dead zone where market is in balance.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this.
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Buying 19000 or shorting near 19100. Bear trend line from 19195 was decent to short.
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