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Let's try this again - FET Short

FET has hit a 6.85 just as it did in its last market cycle top. I think that from here there is a chance that it dumps down to the 2.618 area as an initial dump. This is approximately around $1.22.

Once this initial dump takes place, it will likely do a nice bounce back upwards, which typically sets up another dump/short opportunity. This bounce will probably take us back up to around $2.50. So a nice long opportunity within a short opportunity. If this plays out as it did last time, you should be able to short down to around 57 cents. So first short - about 60%, counter trend long - 100%, second short op - 73%. That's IF this plays out the same way as it did last cycle.

If we just continue bullish - my next upward target is $4.52.

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Looks like it is probably headed to 4.52ish. There wasn't any confirmation on this one - but the fib setup compared to the last cycle was intriguing.

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OK - this looks to be a fake-out. Perhaps this short trade idea might actually get validated. The market has been very screwy today so far.

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FET is continuing to trend on the hourly timeframe - so far it looks like it wants to head to 4.52.

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I posted an idea for the bullish scenario. Targets are 4.54 and 7.28. I've been trading FET on the hourly timeframe

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If this actually ends up playing out, I will crap myself.

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I think that a nice entry may be given around $3.00 if you are looking to short FET. This push up should be pretty telling.

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this bounce should reveal to us if this short opportunity is going to play out or not. This will likely serve as a prime entry if we ultimately get rejected and this is a good short op. Otherwise my eyes are on $4.52 as a next target.

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We had a nice bearish 2 week close. Still feeling strong about this short.

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If Bitcoin breaks out of this triangle - and goes and taps around 85k, then I could see this going up to 4.52...where it then may actually top out.

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This may actually be a rising wedge on BTC. If we get a bearish week this week, the hanging man on the weekly chart may get confirmation for BTC. That would support this short.

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Ideally, we would like to close this week at $2.77 or below. That would be an excellent bearish case.

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this may be what is developing.

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and here we go with our first major spill : )

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So, we actually hit the 3.618 as the first pivot point. This is due to FET doing the big fake-out over the 6.85, which skewed the percentages as seen in the first market cycle top in the last bull run. (2021)

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So, we did get a nice 50% short out of this idea. Now we are gearing back up for another short. I think that the prime entry is coming shortly, around 2.70ish. I will say that the weekly candlesticks do look different than what they did in the cycle that I am comparing this to.

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OK - it looks to be going as expected since the last update. I took on another short position at 2.60 this morning. We seem to be getting rejection from this area. This could of course change, but I think that starting your short positions again within this area is wise. You can always just get stopped out and reposition if it goes against you in the short term.

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OK - so we are probably headed back up into the short zone again short term. I consider the short zone 2.54ish and above.

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I took profits on my short from $2.60 here. I think that we might get another shot at $2.54 and above to take another short position, granted that we don't switch back to bullish.

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Well, I had to add back to my short once I saw that local resistance was holding. So, away she blows.

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Alright, it still looks as if we get another shot at 2.54ish or above.

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Alright, so I am still in the belief that we are going to get another shot at 2.54 or more for yet another short building opportunity.

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Yep, daily chart definitely supports a nice rally. I still strongly expect another shot at 2.54 or more to short again.

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Here we are just shy of the expected 2.54 level. We hit 2.52 early this AM. I am nibbling at shorts again in this area. I'm setting a stop just above the 2.54 area in case we go higher. repositioning is just a part of the game.

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While we are in this area, taking shorts as close to 2.54ish as possible I think is best practice. If we establish support on top of 2.54, then it would obv be time to reposition. This is looking pretty promising as a shorting area as it did before on the 20th-24th of April last month.

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alright, it has been confirmed that the area around 2.54 was a good place to take shorts. Hopefully anyone following this caught it.

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The updated Take profit target zones for this particular idea now that we have more data: TP 1: 1.42 - 1.22 TP 2: .90 - .63

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Sry, I meant to post this update earlier. I was tired last night, though.

We probably get a nice shot at the descending trendline above again - which is going to be close to 2.50 if we hit it. We may overshoot it and hit the 2.54 area or above. Of course, we could always build support on top of 2.54 and potentially have the short opportunities exhausted for now as well.

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OK - it isn't exactly looking promising that we even make it back to the 2.50 area. Hopefully you got into a short on one of the many opportunities within this idea. I'll do my best to provide updates regardless of what happens from here.

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My apologies - I did draw that descending trendline a bit off. We rejected from the descending trendline last night at around 2.40ish. So, things are still looking good for this idea.

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On a 2 week basis, we keep getting bought up when we go below the 2.16 support. There are also a bunch of wicks below 2.16 on a weekly basis, too. The 2 week chart also supports a bearish case as the candle stick bodies have closed below one another up to this point. IMO we are on the brink of a huge drop soon, but there is a fight being put up by the bulls that could reverse this. We should know soon if the lower targets for this idea will be visited or not.

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We did in fact revisit the 2.54 area, lol. We closed with a nice hanging man on the 12 hour, so this area is a great one to attempt another short if you haven't already. What we need is to close below 2.16 and get rejection when trying to go back above it.

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We may have exhausted our shorting opportunities for now. FET looks like it wants to confirm a breakout of this asymmetrical triangle. This is still a bull market - but Bitcoin did print a gravestone doji on the 2 month chart. Tough call at this point. If FET drops below 2.16 and it gets rejected when trying to break back up through it - then this idea may play out to its fullest.

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We just need a weak recovery rally with rejection here, and I think that we can attack these lower targets!

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So far we are getting the condition that I wanted to see: rejection around 2.16. If we want our lower targets to get hit in this idea, then we want this continue to be a weak counter-trend up move...and either get rejected here or not much higher. This is complicated because there is hidden bullish divergence on BTC and alts on the weekly chart. Regardless, the conditions for a big short trade are here as long as we continue to get rejected here.

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Still going good - we got rejected from the 2.16 area that I'd mentioned was a good indication of success. We also lost the intermediate trendline. Now we just need to continue to downtrend/get rejected.

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Congrats to anyone who stuck it out on this idea, as we are inching closer to the first major take profit area! I'd been waiting for us to break structure at 2.16, and we did just that...and we have officially made a lower low now.

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First major profit taking zone has been hit!! Congrats to everyone who stuck with this!

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We went just below the first major take profit zone, and are now rallying from this area. I feel pretty good about having this as the first major take profit zone : ) I think that we do still have a good chance at making the second take profit zone, too.

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I think that FET is probably very close to heading towards my next profit taking zone as we are seeing some nice rejection here. That next profit taking zone is from approx .91-.63 cents.

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we closed the last couple of weeks as a spinning top at the bottom of a downward move, and then an inverted hammer. We may only squeeze the first major take profit target out of this trade. Even if that is the case, this was a great trade none the less!

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Well, We DID get the first major take profit zone out of this trade, hah.

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We could be getting the drop down to .90-.63 very soon. We shall see if 1.06 holds.

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It looks like we may have a good shot at hitting the second take profit area of .90-.63 as Bitcoin has been rejected from the 70k area, and looks to test its support in the lower area of its current range.

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I could even see a wick as low as .48 cents if we want to be really ambitious.

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The 3D chart is really the biggest chance that this trade has at taking out the second target...otherwise the long trade shall prevail from here on out.

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We did make it under 1.05 and are threatening the second take profit area. I am still not 100% holding my breath on this happening for sure. I have my remaining short position above the last swing high, which is within the first take profit area of 1.20-1.42.

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I still have a bit on for closer to .63 cents, but a majority of my position is now closed in profit! Congrats everyone!

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SUCCESS!!!! I still have a tad on incase we go for .63, and maybe even .48 with a wick.