OPEC and Seasonals - Sell

2017年1月4日

Market normally goes into backwardation in FFAs after new years and shipping volumes falls when refineries go into maintenance and cut their crude processing demand. This year, in particular, it should fall even more given the cuts being implemented as per media in the last couple of days. A hot tip to follow the fixtures done is to download VLCC Fixtures (iPhone) from Frontlines own chartering department which provides and overview of cargos/ships/last done. Furthermore, bunker fuel is representative of a large freight cost component which also follows oil upwards and thus is currently putting earnings pressure on all shipping companies. Hence to conclude within jan-feb 2017 this stock should fall to its lows due to OPEC cuts, cost explosion in bunker and seasonal maintenance of refineries, thus the anti-trade of oil short term.

2017年1月5日

注释

FFA Contracts (WS) SPOT 95.92 JAN 80, FEB 60, MAR 51 - deep backwardation in current market.

2017年1月16日

注释

New weakness with 60.10 found today - close to a horizontal support hence time to shut down the trade today.