FX_IDC:GBPARS的GBPARS Long Super Bullish由DaveBrascoFX提供

Technical Analysis
Trend Bullish
Weekly Long
Daily Long
10H Long
4H Long
2 H Long
30min. LONG

Strategy Bullish
My Trading Conditions and my Rules(This are the Rules I follow,and they are no financial adivice for others)

Trade Consditions Higher Highs Higher Lows

Trade Rules: Taking only Buy Signals
Trade Rule 2: Only Buy Signals
Trade Rule 3: Exit only, if a Pullback my Stops hit.

Japanese Shares Rise as US Inflation Eases

The Nikkei 225 Index jumped 0.8% to above 32,200 while the broader Topix Index gained 0.3% to 2,228 on Thursday, rising from one-month lows and tracking a rally on Wall Street overnight as cooler-than-expected US inflation data raised hopes that the Federal Reserve is closer to the end of its tightening cycle. Investors also bought back technology stocks following days of consolidation, with notable gains from SoftBank Group (1.9%), Advantest (1.4%), Socionext (2.8%), Tokyo Electron (0.6%), Z Holdings (2.8%) and Renesas Electronics (2.5%). Other index heavyweights also advanced, including Sony Group (4.5%), Fast Retailing (1%), Daiichi Sankyo (4.5%), Mitsui & Co (1%) and Eisai Co (1.6%).

Australia Inflation Expectations Stable inJuly
NZX Trades Slightly Higher
New Zealand Factory Activity Shrinks to 7-Month Low
Argentina Indicators
Industrial Production 1.1 1.8 percent May/23
Industrial Production Mom 1.2 3.2 percent Apr/23
Capacity Utilization 68.9 67.3 percent Apr/23
Changes in Inventories -20633 20148 ARS Million Mar/23
Car Production 53282 54399 Units May/23
Car Registrations 38.6 33.8 Thousand May/23
Leading Economic Index -0.48 -0.28 percent May/23
Corruption Index 38 38 Points Dec/22
Corruption Rank 94 96 Dec/22
The Turkish lira extended losses to new all-time lows of 26.2 per USD, amid increasing signs of a shift to a more orthodox approach and as the central bank reportedly stopped using its reserves to support the currency. On June 22nd, the central bank of Turkey raised interest rates by 650 bps to 15%, marking a reversal from its previous ultra-loose and unorthodox monetary policy although the move fell short of meeting market expectations for a higher rate of 21%. Few days later, policymakers loosened measures designed to boost the lira, including lowering the securities maintenance ratio to 5% from 10% and the threshold for the share of lira deposits to 57% from 60%.

注释

Week Ahead - July 17th

Next week, investors will focus on the earnings results from major US companies, such as Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, IBM, Netflix, Tesla, and Johnson & Johnson. Additionally, it will be interesting to monitor retail sales, industrial production, and housing data, including existing home sales, housing starts, and building permits. In other news, China is set to release Q2 GDP growth, retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investments. Markets will also be attentive to inflation rates in the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and South Africa. Furthermore, the central banks of Turkey and South Africa will make decisions regarding monetary policy, Australia will publish the unemployment rate, and the UK and Canada will release retail sales data.

注释

China New Home Prices Flatten in June

Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities were flat year-on-year in June 2023 after edging up 0.1 percent in the previous month. Among the biggest Chinese cities, prices increased in Beijing (3.5% vs 4.3% in May), Chongqing (0.6% vs 1.3%), Shanghai (4.8% vs 4.9%), and Tianjin (0.2% vs -0.3%). By contrast, cost fell in both Shenzhen (-2.4% vs -0.2%) and Guangzhou (-0.8% vs -0.4%). On a monthly basis, new home prices were unchanged, the weakest result so far this year, as as broad efforts from Beijing have not revived the ailing prope

注释

Brazilian Stocks Fall to Finish Week on Sour Note
Brazil’s Ibovespa stock index fell 1.3% to close at 117,698 marks on Friday, after a report that showed retail sales in Brazil unexpectedly decreased in May. Brazil's retail sales fell 1% in May from a month earlier, the first decrease since December. Among single stocks, BRF tumbled 7.4% after pricing its stock offering at 9 reais per share, raising 5.4 billion reais. Also, GOL declined 6% due to forecasts indicating a loss in the second quarter and Azul slipped by 6.5%. Meanwhile, the heavyweight Petrobras lost 2.3% in line with the downward movement of oil prices. On the other hand, Méliuz surged 14.1% after closing at a record low the day before. For the week, the Ibovespa went down by 1%.

China New Home Prices Flatten in June
Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities were flat year-on-year in June 2023 after edging up 0.1 percent in the previous month. Among the biggest Chinese cities, prices increased in Beijing (3.5% vs 4.3% in May), Chongqing (0.6% vs 1.3%), Shanghai (4.8% vs 4.9%), and Tianjin (0.2% vs -0.3%). By contrast, cost fell in both Shenzhen (-2.4% vs -0.2%) and Guangzhou (-0.8% vs -0.4%). On a monthly basis, new home prices were unchanged, the weakest result so far this year, as as broad efforts from Beijing have not revived the ailing property sector with recovery weakening in the world's second-largest economy.

Shares in New Zealand fell 15 points or 0.13% to 11,998 in early trading at the start of the week, slightly retreating from a nearly 2-month peak hit in the prior session, amid losses from non-energy minerals, industrial services, and transport. A decline in US stock futures rattled sentiment after Wall Street closed mostly lower Friday, with the S&P 500 snapping a 4-day win streak, as investors digested bank earnings. Traders also took a cautious stance ahead of a flurry of economic data from China later in the day, including Q2 GDP readings, with concerns growing that the post-pandemic bounce is rapidly losing momentum.
US Natgas Prices Fall to 1-Month Low
Colombia Industrial Output Falls Less than Expected
Manufacturing production in Columbia sank by 3.4% year-on-year in May 2023, following a 6.4% decline in the previous month and compared with market estimates of a 4.9% contraction. The downturn added to recent evidence that the Colombian economy is succumbing to the aggressive interest rate hikes from its central bank. Output fell primarily for paper products (-15.1%), beverages (-11.2%), chemical products (-14.7%), and textiles (-22.1%).

注释

Most Latam currencies rise, Argentine peso touches historic low
Peru central bank decision due
Argentine peso hit record low of 512/dollar after CPI data
Peru extends state of emergency in key mining region
Guatemala's court excludes top party from election
Most Latin American currencies rose against a weak dollar on Thursday after slowing U.S. inflation signaled a faster farewell to the U.S. rate-hiking cycle, while Argentina's peso hit a historic low in parallel market trading after inflation data.

Brazil's real

USDBRL
, (BRBY) and Chile's peso

USDCLP
rose 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively, with the dollar tumbling to its lowest since last April after U.S. inflation readings cemented bets of an imminent end to Federal Reserve rate hikes.

The Argentine peso (ARSB=) fell 0.9% in black market trading to a historic low of 512 pesos per dollar after data showed the monthly inflation rate stood at 6.0% in June, below a Reuters poll forecast of 7.0%.

Inflation in the 12 months through June hit 115.6% in Argentina.

As the country struggles with an economic crisis, an Argentine delegation is meeting with the International Monetary Fund this week to renegotiate its $44 million loan.

Peru's sol

USDPEN
added 0.2%, holding near its strongest level since November 2020 ahead of a monetary policy decision later in the day.

The country extended an emergency state for another 30 days along its main roadways, including a key mining corridor, as a new round of protests is expected to kick off next week.

Colombia's peso

USDCOP
rose 0.9%, touching a three-week high.

William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, also noted that shocks from the El Nino weather pattern could prompt inflation in central and south American regions to cool more slowly than previously expected.

"Latin American central banks are unlikely to look through food price shocks given how strong headline inflation and wage growth in the region still are. So, upside inflation surprises could postpone the upcoming monetary easing cycles, or make them more gradual."

The Mexican peso slipped 0.4% and was set to snap a four-day winning streak, after touching its highest level since early December 2015 on Wednesday.

The MSCI gauge for Latam stocks (.MILA00000PUS) gained 1.3%, led by a 1.4% advance in Brazil's Bovespa
IBOV
.

Foreigners funneled over $22 billion net into emerging market portfolios in June, the largest amount since January, according to data from the Institute of International Finance.

A Guatemalan court ordered the suspension of anti-graft presidential candidate Bernardo Arevalo's political party, threatening his place in a run-off vote and prompting U.S. warnings of a challenge to democracy.

Elsewhere, the International Monetary Fund's executive board has approved an immediate $189 million disbursement to Zambia following its first review of a $1.3 billion loan programme.

Latam FX hits 10-year high on weak dollar as US inflation slows
The index for Latin American currencies touched a 10-year high on Wednesday, led by Brazil's real, as the dollar dwindled after a U.S. inflation reading indicated just one more interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year.

The MSCI index for Latam currencies (.MILA00000CUS) jumped 1.6%, hitting its highest level since April 2013.

Most currencies hit multi-year highs against a weakening dollar after June U.S. consumer prices rose at their smallest annual pace in over two years.

Although talks of rate cuts have intensified in Latam of late, bets on the U.S. rate-hiking cycle coming to an end will likely lead to a favorable interest rates differential.

The Mexican peso

USDMXN
jumped 1%, breaking below the psychological barrier of 17 pesos per dollar, touching an eight year high.

Higher crude oil prices also boosted the Mexican peso and top exporter Colombia's peso

USDCOP
by 0.8%.

Copper prices hit 2-1/2-week highs, boosting currencies of main exporters. Chile's peso

USDCLP
added 0.7% and Peru's sol

USDPEN
rose 1.3%, to its highest level since November 2020. Peru's central bank is set to decide on policy rates on Thursday.

Chile's Finance Minister Mario Marcel said the government now expects gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 0.2% in 2023, revising its forecast down from a previous estimate of 0.3%.

The Brazilian real (BRBY)

USDBRL
gained 0.8%, touching a one-week high.

The rapporteur for Brazil's tax reform bill in the Senate, Eduardo Braga, on Tuesday said that he expects the proposal to be voted on in October in the House.

Data showed Brazil's services activity grew by much more than expected in May, paring some losses seen in April despite high interest rates.

"Progress on the structural reform agenda and the (Brazil) government decision to maintain the CPI target at 3% have cleared the way for rate cuts; we expect a 50bps cut on August 2," said Lawrence Brainard, chief EM economist at TS Lombard.

Meanwhile, Argentine polling firms warned of difficulties accurately predicting the upcoming presidential primaries' results due to low turnout and the emergence of surprise candidates, leaving the October election also uncertain.

The MSCI index for Latam stocks (.MILA00000PUS) jumped 2.5%, touching a one-week high, led by a 1.4% advance Brazil's Bovespa
IBOV
.

World's largest meat packer JBS SA
JBSS3
jumped 9% after proposing a New York listing.

Separately, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a $3 billion, nine-month bailout programme for Pakistan.

注释

Most Latam currencies rise, Argentine peso touches historic low
Peru central bank decision due
Argentine peso hit record low of 512/dollar after CPI data
Peru extends state of emergency in key mining region
Guatemala's court excludes top party from election
Most Latin American currencies rose against a weak dollar on Thursday after slowing U.S. inflation signaled a faster farewell to the U.S. rate-hiking cycle, while Argentina's peso hit a historic low in parallel market trading after inflation data.

Brazil's real

USDBRL
, (BRBY) and Chile's peso

USDCLP
rose 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively, with the dollar tumbling to its lowest since last April after U.S. inflation readings cemented bets of an imminent end to Federal Reserve rate hikes.

The Argentine peso (ARSB=) fell 0.9% in black market trading to a historic low of 512 pesos per dollar after data showed the monthly inflation rate stood at 6.0% in June, below a Reuters poll forecast of 7.0%.

Inflation in the 12 months through June hit 115.6% in Argentina.

As the country struggles with an economic crisis, an Argentine delegation is meeting with the International Monetary Fund this week to renegotiate its $44 million loan.

Peru's sol

USDPEN
added 0.2%, holding near its strongest level since November 2020 ahead of a monetary policy decision later in the day.

The country extended an emergency state for another 30 days along its main roadways, including a key mining corridor, as a new round of protests is expected to kick off next week.

Colombia's peso

USDCOP
rose 0.9%, touching a three-week high.

William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, also noted that shocks from the El Nino weather pattern could prompt inflation in central and south American regions to cool more slowly than previously expected.

"Latin American central banks are unlikely to look through food price shocks given how strong headline inflation and wage growth in the region still are. So, upside inflation surprises could postpone the upcoming monetary easing cycles, or make them more gradual."

The Mexican peso slipped 0.4% and was set to snap a four-day winning streak, after touching its highest level since early December 2015 on Wednesday.

The MSCI gauge for Latam stocks (.MILA00000PUS) gained 1.3%, led by a 1.4% advance in Brazil's Bovespa
IBOV
.

Foreigners funneled over $22 billion net into emerging market portfolios in June, the largest amount since January, according to data from the Institute of International Finance.

A Guatemalan court ordered the suspension of anti-graft presidential candidate Bernardo Arevalo's political party, threatening his place in a run-off vote and prompting U.S. warnings of a challenge to democracy.

Elsewhere, the International Monetary Fund's executive board has approved an immediate $189 million disbursement to Zambia following its first review of a $1.3 billion loan programme.

Latam FX hits 10-year high on weak dollar as US inflation slows
The index for Latin American currencies touched a 10-year high on Wednesday, led by Brazil's real, as the dollar dwindled after a U.S. inflation reading indicated just one more interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year.

The MSCI index for Latam currencies (.MILA00000CUS) jumped 1.6%, hitting its highest level since April 2013.

Most currencies hit multi-year highs against a weakening dollar after June U.S. consumer prices rose at their smallest annual pace in over two years.

Although talks of rate cuts have intensified in Latam of late, bets on the U.S. rate-hiking cycle coming to an end will likely lead to a favorable interest rates differential.

The Mexican peso

USDMXN
jumped 1%, breaking below the psychological barrier of 17 pesos per dollar, touching an eight year high.

Higher crude oil prices also boosted the Mexican peso and top exporter Colombia's peso

USDCOP
by 0.8%.

Copper prices hit 2-1/2-week highs, boosting currencies of main exporters. Chile's peso

USDCLP
added 0.7% and Peru's sol

USDPEN
rose 1.3%, to its highest level since November 2020. Peru's central bank is set to decide on policy rates on Thursday.

Chile's Finance Minister Mario Marcel said the government now expects gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 0.2% in 2023, revising its forecast down from a previous estimate of 0.3%.

The Brazilian real (BRBY)

USDBRL
gained 0.8%, touching a one-week high.

The rapporteur for Brazil's tax reform bill in the Senate, Eduardo Braga, on Tuesday said that he expects the proposal to be voted on in October in the House.

Data showed Brazil's services activity grew by much more than expected in May, paring some losses seen in April despite high interest rates.

"Progress on the structural reform agenda and the (Brazil) government decision to maintain the CPI target at 3% have cleared the way for rate cuts; we expect a 50bps cut on August 2," said Lawrence Brainard, chief EM economist at TS Lombard.

Meanwhile, Argentine polling firms warned of difficulties accurately predicting the upcoming presidential primaries' results due to low turnout and the emergence of surprise candidates, leaving the October election also uncertain.

The MSCI index for Latam stocks (.MILA00000PUS) jumped 2.5%, touching a one-week high, led by a 1.4% advance Brazil's Bovespa
IBOV
.

World's largest meat packer JBS SA
JBSS3
jumped 9% after proposing a New York listing.

Separately, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a $3 billion, nine-month bailout programme for Pakistan.

注释

YEN Oil AUD NZD Asian stocks fall on bad chinese data

China Industrial Output Growth Beats Estimates

The Chinese economy advanced 6.3% yoy in Q2 of 2023, faster than a 4.5% growth in Q1 but missing market estimates of 7.3%. The latest figures were distorted by a low base of comparison last year when Shanghai and other big cities were in strict lockdown. During H1, the economy grew by 5.5%. China has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for this year after the economy expanded by 3% in 2022 and missed the government's target of about 5.5%. Beijing has shown reluctance to launch greater stimulus, especially as local government debt has soared. In June alone, indicators showed a mixed picture: retail sales rose the least in 5 months, industrial output growth grew for the 14th month, and the urban jobless rate was unchanged at 5.2% but youth unemployment hit a new high of 21.3%. Data released earlier showed shipments from China fell the most in three years, as high inflation in key markets and geopolitics hit foreign demand. A Politburo meeting is expected later this month.

Asian Stocks Fall on Weak Chinese Data

Asian equity markets fell on Monday as investors reacted to key data showing China’s economy grew 6.3% in the second quarter, lower than the 7.3% expansion expected by analysts. The Shanghai Composite led the decline, losing more than 1%. The Shenzhen Component, S&P/ASX 200 and Kospi indexes also tumbled. Meanwhile, Japanese markets are closed for a holiday, while Hong Kong markets will likely be closed for the day due to a typhoon.
China Stocks Drop on Weak GDP Data

The Shanghai Composite dropped 1.1% to around 3,200 while the Shenzhen Component lost 0.8% to 10,990 on Monday, giving back gains from last week as investors reacted to key data showing China’s economy grew 6.3% in the second quarter, lower than the 7.3% expansion expected by analysts. Meanwhile, China’s industrial production and fixed asset investments increased more than anticipated, while retail sales missed forecasts. Mainland stocks gained last week amid hopes that a faltering post-pandemic recovery would prompt Beijing to offer more pro-growth policy measures. Commodity-linked and financial stocks led the decline, with notable losses from Yunnan Lincang (-3.5%), Zijin Mining (-1.5%), China Shenhua Energy (-4.5%), ICBC (-6%), Ping An Insurance (-1%) and China Merchants Bank (-1.1%).

注释

This trade is still open and active

Government Bond Yields Fall for 2nd Session

Government bond yields around the world fell for a second day on Tuesday, with the US 10-year Treasury note yield, seen as a proxy for global borrowing costs, retreating to 3.76%, a level not seen since late June. Investors are getting increasingly convinced that major central banks, and specially the Federal Reserve, will soon end their tightening campaign. Bets for a 25bps hike in the fed funds rate next week currently stand at 97% but investors remain divided on the need of further increases, with chances for a September increase currently standing at 12% and for November at 22%. Meanwhile, the ECB is also set to raise rates by 25bps again next week while there is just a 70% chance of a further rate rise in September. The Bank of England will decide on monetary policy in August only, but either a 25bps or a 50bps hike are seen as certain. On the other hand, traders are increasingly speculating the Bank of Japan could adjust its ultra loose monetary policy next week.

The yield on the German 10-year government bond fell to 2.4%, down from the four-month high of 2.679% reached on July 10, as signs of cooling inflation in the US increased speculation that the Federal Reserve is approaching the end of a series of significant interest rate hikes. Nevertheless, the European Central Bank is expected to persist with raising rates throughout the year, aiming for a deposit rate peak of 4% by year-end. However, a recent batch of weak economic data from across the region might prompt the central bank to revise its inflation forecasts in September, possibly leaving the deposit facility rate at 3.75%. Hawkish ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel expressed caution on Monday about further tightening moves in September, stating that "we will see what the data will tell us." In addition, his colleague Klaas Knot said monetary tightening beyond July’s meeting is anything but guaranteed.

Turkish Lira Weakens to Fresh Record Low

The Turkish lira weakened more than 2% to a fresh record low of 26.9 per USD, as both the central bank and state-run banks stopped supporting the currency ahead of the central bank monetary policy decision on Thursday. Most investors expect a 500bps increase in interest rates, although some market participants said the rise could be smaller. On June 22nd, the central bank of Turkey raised interest rates by 650 bps to 15%, marking a reversal from its previous ultra-loose and unorthodox monetary policy although the move fell short of meeting market expectations for a higher rate of 21%

Euro Hits Fresh 17-Month High

The euro strengthened its position above $1.12, reaching its highest level since February 2022, on the back of investor expectations that the European Central Bank will continue its rate-hike cycle to tackle inflation and bring it closer to the 2% target. In the Eurozone, inflation declined to a 17-month low of 5.5% in June, but the core rate remained stubbornly high at 5.4%, still close to the all-time high of 5.7% seen in March. Currently, the interest rates in the bloc stand at 3.5%, but traders anticipate rates peaking at 4% by the end of the year. However, a recent batch of weak economic data from across the region might prompt the central bank to revise its inflation forecasts in September, possibly leaving the deposit facility rate at 3.75%. Simultaneously, the recently released weaker-than-expected US inflation data has fueled speculations that the Federal Reserve is nearing the conclusion of its current policy tightening measures.

注释

This trade is stil open and active

relevant market wraps
European Markets Head for Muted Open

European equity markets were headed for a muted open on Thursday as investors braced for the start of the earnings season in the region. Major European firms slated to report earnings today include SAP, EasyJet, Volvo Car, Publicis, ABB and Nokia. Investors also turned cautious after shares of key technology names in the US dropped in post-market trade on disappointing quarterly results. DAX, Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 futures all fluctuated around the flatline in premarket trade.
Gold Hits 2-Month High on Fed Pause Bets
Japan 10-Year Yield Steadies Around 0.46%
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield steadied around 0.46% as a dovish outlook on Bank of Japan monetary policy kept the benchmark yield below the upper limit of the target range. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently stated that there was still some distance to sustainably and stably achieve the central bank’s 2% inflation target, indicating the BOJ’s commitment to ultra-easy monetary policy. Last month, the central bank held its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and that of 10-year bond yields at around 0% by a unanimous vote, in line with expectations. Falling bond yields in other major economies also reduced upward pressure on JGB yields, as easing inflationary pressures raised hopes that the end of the current monetary policy tightening cycle is close.

Japan Raises This Year’s Price View to 2.6% Ahead of BOJ Meet
The Japanese government raised its overall inflation forecast to 2.6% for the current fiscal year ahead of the central bank’s policy decision meeting next week, the Cabinet Office said Thursday. The upward revision from the previous forecast of 1.7% shows stronger-than-expected inflationary pressure. Japan saw that trend holding up even after accounting for government price-relief measures, which the Cabinet Office says shaves 0.5 percentage points off this year’s price reading. For fiscal 2024, the government expects overall inflation to slow to 1.9%.

注释

trade is open

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