Looking over this pair - had many great wins via thorough analysis and now looking to further grow in knowledge and spotting patterns.
My thinking:
Based off weekly and monthly chart - Personally as mentioned before I do not see price dipping to the sub 1.7 area; price has rejected the dip over the duration of time (bar once with an almost immediate recovery)
Based off the 1 hour chart I believe we need to wait for confirmation of rejection of uptrend support to confirm the bearish continuation - price formed a double top at the 1.2 zone and previously this confirmed the bear run; price is currently teasing us with re tests with a potential re test being formed for the third time.
My strategy is to wait for 1 hour confirmation for the day trade today and then follow direction as following the trend = profit. My predictions illustrated on the chart.
I have a low buy trade on from 1.17900 which was justified by my analysis of the weekly chart - lot size 0.35 which I will be holding for 3/4 months.