GBPUSD_102 2024.11.05 14:34:05 Trading Signal SELL

3天前

FrankPro Signal for GBPUSD_102

Type: Screen
Signal: SELL
TP: 1.2937
SL: 1.30274
Entry Price: 1.30161

Analysis for GBPUSD

Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Strong Up LT=Strong Down

Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term):
[Method0] ST=Up LT=Down
[Method1] ST=Up LT=Down
[Method2] ST=Up LT=Down


Analysis Method(0)

Based on the provided analysis, I will provide separate short-term and long-term forecasts for the GBP/USD currency pair.

**Short-term forecast (next 24-48 hours)**

Given the upcoming US presidential election results and monetary policy decisions from the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) on November 7, market volatility is expected to increase. The current trading range between 1.2900 and 1.3050 may break out in either direction.

* If the US presidential election results favor Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, the US Dollar may weaken, and the GBP/USD pair may break above 1.3050, targeting 1.3100 and 1.3175.
* If the election results are unfavorable for Harris, the US Dollar may strengthen, and the GBP/USD pair may break below 1.2850, targeting 1.2700.

**Probability of short-term price movement:**

* Up: 40%
* Down: 30%
* Sideways: 30%

**Long-term forecast (next week and beyond)**

The general trend of the GBP/USD currency pair is still bearish, according to daily chart performance. The expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve may influence market sentiment and lead to a downward movement in the pair.

* If the BoE cuts interest rates by 0.25% or more, the pound's value may decline, and the GBP/USD pair may continue its bearish trend, targeting 1.2600 and 1.2400.
* If the Fed cuts rates by a standard 25 basis points, the US Dollar may weaken, and the GBP/USD pair may experience a temporary upward movement, but the overall bearish trend may still prevail.

**Probability of long-term price movement:**

* Down: 55%
* Up: 25%
* Sideways: 20%

Please note that these forecasts are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new information becomes available.

Result: [Method0] ST=Up LT=Down


Analysis Method(1)

Based on the provided analysis, here are my expectations for the GBP/USD pair's price movement in both the short-term and long-term:

**Short-term (next few days/week):**

* The pair is expected to continue its upward momentum, with a potential correction towards 1.3060 and a possible reach of 1.3128.
* The ascending channel and sustained uptrend suggest a bullish bias in the short term.
* However, the overbought condition indicated by the RSI (70) suggests a potential price consolidation or correction.

**Expected price movement:** Up (but with potential consolidation or correction)

**Long-term (end of 2024 and beyond):**

* Forecasts are mixed, with LongForecast suggesting a potential strengthening of the pound sterling by the end of the year, while WalletInvestor projects a bearish trend.
* The expected interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) may put downward pressure on the pound sterling, potentially leading to a decline in the GBP/USD pair.
* However, the uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election outcome and its impact on the US Dollar may continue to support the GBP/USD pair.

**Expected price movement:** Uncertain (both up and down scenarios possible)

In summary, while the short-term outlook appears bullish, the long-term forecast is uncertain due to mixed analyst predictions and the impact of upcoming economic events.

Result: [Method1] ST=Up LT=Down


Analysis Method(2)

Based on the provided data, I will analyze the GBPUSD pair's expected price movement in both the short-term and long-term.

**Short-term Analysis (Next few days to end of 2024)**

* The pair is currently struggling to break above the 1.3000 level, which is capped by the 100-day SMA.
* Technical indicators suggest support at around 1.2914 and a potential corrective wave towards 1.3060.
* The upcoming US presidential election and the Bank of England's monetary policy decision on Thursday are key factors that could influence the pair's movement.
* Given the uncertainty surrounding these events, the pair is expected to trade within a range. However, the bullish gap at the start of the week and the potential for further growth aiming for 1.3128 suggest a slightly bullish bias.
* Therefore, in the short-term, the price is expected to **go up** slightly, potentially reaching the 1.3060-1.3128 range.

**Long-term Analysis (End of 2024 and beyond)**

* Forecasts suggest the GBPUSD rate could range between 1.288 and 1.321 for November 2024, with an average for the month at around 1.273.
* The pair is expected to end the month at 1.269, representing a -1.1% change.
* The Bank of England's planned interest rate cuts by nearly 100 basis points by the end of 2025 are being factored into market prices, which could put downward pressure on the GBP.
* Considering the forecasted range and the expected interest rate cuts, the long-term outlook for the GBPUSD pair appears **bearish**, with a potential decline towards the 1.269-1.273 range.

In summary, the GBPUSD pair is expected to **go up** slightly in the short-term, potentially reaching the 1.3060-1.3128 range, but **go down** in the long-term, potentially declining towards the 1.269-1.273 range.

Result: [Method2] ST=Up LT=Down